Battle for 2024: Will be it Narendra Modi vs Nitish Kumar?

Will the many U-turns that Nitish Kumar takes finally lead him to 7, Lok Kalyan Marg? The Janata Dal (United) politician has had his eyes set on New Delhi for a while now. His attempts to make that big jump toward national politics have fallen short in the past. But his decision to ditch the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Bihar and form the Grand Alliance 2.0 has given new wings to his dream.

Should BJP worry?

Nitish Kumar took oath today as Bihar chief minister for the record eighth time with Rajashtriya Janata Dal’s (RJD) Tejashwi Yadav as his deputy. The Mahagathbandha comprises the JD(U), RJD, Congress, and four smaller regional parties.

Bihar: Nitish Kumar swears in as CM for 8th time; Tejashwi Yadav to be Dy CM

Read @ANI Story | https://t.co/zTZ39XCRPG#NitishKumar #TejashwiYadav #BiharPolitics #Bihar pic.twitter.com/xFmXvMcIgo

— ANI Digital (@ani_digital) August 10, 2022

However, the break-up could prove costly to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and it knows that. No wonder Union Home Minister and party strategist reached out to Kumar to save the alliance.

“We have always tried to save the alliance,” former Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Tarkishore Prasad. Admitting that Shah reached out to the JD(U) leader, “Nitish ji’s ambitions had become so huge he no longer trusted the alliance.”

The BJP has some reason to worry. JD(U)’s exit from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has fuelled the narrative that the saffron party cannot keep its allies close. Nitish Kumar’s party became the third major ally after the Shiv Sena and the Akali Dal to snap ties with the BJP after 2019.

The break-up will slightly loosen the ruling party’s grip over the Hindi heartland ahead of the 2024 general elections. “A Mahagathbandhan that includes the JD(U), RJD and Congress, apart from the Left, on the other hand, can skewer its social engineering, plus Hindutva, plus nationalism, calculations. In the matrix of Bihar, it is the social combinations which work more than any other factor,” writes journalist Santosh Singh in The Indian Express.

A boost for the Opposition

When the Grand Alliance was forged in 2015, Kumar had hopes that he would be elevated as the convenor of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and thus emerge as the prime ministerial candidate in 2019. Back then, he met Rahul Gandhi but it did not lead to anything. Eventually, the JD(U) boss walked out of the partnership citing corruption allegations against the Yadavs and joined hands with the BJP.

However, a lot has changed in the past few years. Kumar’s decision to quit the ruling NDA and switch to the Opposition side is likely to provide a boost to anti-BJP parties. The Bihar chief minister has a “Mr Clean” image and his development plank still has takers. He is a socialist veteran leader who has more credibility than many of the Opposition leaders.

The changing dynamics with the Congress

On Tuesday, Kumar dialled Rahul and Sonia Gandhi and thanked them for the Congress party’s support of the new alliance However, the Grand Old Party is well aware that it is on the back foot. It has only seen a decline in its fortunes political fortunes in the last couple of years.

Not many in the Opposition are comfortable with the fairly powerless Congress leading the group. Rahul is no longer the obvious choice as the face of the anti-BJP parties.

Also, there is a growing buzz in the political circles that the Gandhis might take a step back. Rahul is not too keen to take the mantle of party president again. If the party decides to go with a non-Congress face to lead the UPA, it will change the political dynamic ahead of the big 2024 election.

Nitish as PM face?

If not a Congress leader then who? The Opposition has few options – one being Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar. However, the recent coup in Maharashtra has diminished his power and age is something that might not work in his favour.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Telangana counterpart K Chandrashekar Rao are keen to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, they do not have an appeal in the Hindi heartland.

Kumar then could be the right man to step in and lead the Opposition in 2022. If the Bihar CM makes the move to national politics, he could make an impact in the Hindi heartland where the Opposition lacks a face.

Taking to Twitter, JD(U) leader Upendra Kushwaha might have dropped a hint about Nitish Kumar’s big plan. “Congratulations to Shri Nitish Kumar Ji for the accountability of leadership of the new coalition in the new form. Nitish Ji, go ahead. The country is waiting for you,” he wrote in Hindi.

नये स्वरूप में नये गठबंधन के नेतृत्व की जवाबदेही के लिए श्री नीतीश कुमार जी को बधाई। नीतीश जी आगे बढ़िए। देश आपका इंतजार कर कर रहा है।

— Upendra Kushwaha (@UpendraKushJDU) August 9, 2022

“If you assess the personalities in the country, Nitish Kumar is eligible to become prime minister. We are not making any claim today, but he has all the qualities of a prime minister,” he told the media.

The disadvantages of Nitish Kumar

It’s too early to say how the situation will pan out in the next two years. However, some Congress leaders say that to stop another saffron wave in 2024, the Opposition will need a leader who will also appeal to the southern states and Maharashtra.

“Kumar will have no appeal in the south and Maharashtra. So I am not enthusiastic about this theory,” one Congress leader told The Indian Express.

Left and Trinamool Congress leaders welcomed the development in Bihar but refused to comment on Kumar’s prime ministerial chances.

“There are some regional satraps. Kumar is also among them. He certainly is a contender. But ultimately, it will be a unanimous decision on who will be the challenger to the BJP,” NCP leader Majeed Memon told PTI.

The Opposition is in no rush to make a pick. But the calculated Nitish Kumar is likely to have revived the Mahagathbandhan, not so much for Bihar as much Bharat.

With inputs from agencies

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