Bypoll barometer: BJP rising, regional parties posing challenge, and Congress faltering

The results of the recent seven Assembly bypolls scattered across India may not be a sure fire election barometer but they do indicate which way the political winds are blowing today in the country. Held in as many as six states, the election results underline the dominance of the BJP, the rise of the regional parties as the main challenger, and the further marginalisation of the Congress. Out of the seven, the BJP increased its tally from three to four, the regional parties from two to three and the Congress slid from two to zero.

Nothing better illustrates the plight of the Congress than the party’s dismal performance in Munugode in Telangana, a state carved out by the Congress a decade ago when in power at the Centre out of its erstwhile southern stronghold Andhra Pradesh. Although this had politically wiped out the Congress in Andhra Pradesh, its hopes of getting benefit in Telangana had been dashed by the regional Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) which had swept to victory in two successive Assembly polls in 2014 and 2018. While in Munugode, the Congress candidate, Komatireddy Rajagopal Reddy had won in 2018 he had defected to the BJP in August this year necessitating a bypoll.

This resulted in a fierce fight between the BJP and the TRS both using massive Central and state resources to wrest the seat. In the end the TRS emerged victorious but only after a tough fight from the BJP which had won just a single seat in the last state Assembly polls proving how determined it was to get a foothold in the south. Needless to say, the Congress candidate lacking both resources and stature was nowhere in the picture and lost its security deposit.

A similar tragedy befell the Congress in Adampur in Haryana where Bhajan Lal’s son Kuldeep Bishnoi had won the seat for the party in 2019 but defected to the BJP recently. The BJP gave his son Bhavya the ticket for the bypoll and he romped home ensuring that the seat stayed with the Bhajan Lal family. This dealt yet another blow for the Congress which on the basis of a middling performance in the last Assembly polls had hoped to make a comeback in Haryana.

As for the other five bypolls the Congress was not even in the fray. In Bihar the BJP put up a spirited fight despite being handicapped by the recent divorce from its former regional ally, Janata Dal-United (JD-U) which went back to its former partner Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). It lost the Mokama seat but clung on by a slim margin of less than two thousand votes to the Gopalganj seat which the BJP had retained since 2005. Interestingly, the BSP and AIMIM reported to be sponsored by the BJP garnered more than twenty thousand Dalit and Muslim votes which would have otherwise gone to the RJD candidate Sushma Devi giving her an easy victory. This underlined both the rising political clout of the RJD in Bihar as well as the BJP’s cunning electoral strategy of using other parties as poll props to win tough elections.

In Uttar Pradesh the BJP once again gave a demonstration of its electoral dominance in the state after sweeping the Assembly polls earlier this year. BJP’s Aman Giri won the Gola Gokarannath Assembly seat by a record margin of nearly 3,5000 votes, easily defeating the Samajwadi Party candidate. The bypoll had been necessitated by the death of Aman Giri’s father who held the seat.

The BJP followed the same strategy in Odisha’s Dhamnagar where it fielded the sitting party legislator Bishnu Charan Sethi’s son Suryabanshi Suraj who won by a fair margin in a state otherwise dominated by the regional behemoth Naveen Patnaik led Biju Janata Dal which has swept both parliamentary and Assembly polls in the state over the past several decades.

Significantly in the Andheri East bypoll in Maharashtra the BJP withdrew from the contest at the last moment in a tactical retreat still unsure about the public perception in the state about the party’s recent gambit to split and oust the erstwhile ruling Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena and form a coalition government with the rebel faction. Not surprisingly the Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena easily won but its victory margin was reduced by a surprisingly high number of “None of the Above” (NOTA) votes that came second ahead of Independent candidates. It is believed that the BJP was behind this phenomenon to diminish the impact of the Thackeray Sena faction’s victory.

The other interesting aspect of the recent Assembly polls is that with the sole exception of Munugode in Telangana, all the other contests involved members of established political families. The BJP whose top leadership has often criticised the practice of political dynasties having a stranglehold on Indian politics appears to have led the race to play the same game at a regional and local level. It shows how politics in this country is increasingly becoming a family business.

Finally, the election results, limited as their scope may be, does throw light on the political scenario across the country in the lead up to the crucial 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The BJP with its enormous resources and fierce resolve to win at all costs definitely has its nose ahead at the moment. However, there is a strong challenge posed to this move towards one party rule from regional parties who too individually have their own areas of influence.

As for the Congress, the results show that regardless of the positive optics of Rahul Gandhi’s visibly popular Bharat Jodo Yatra, the once dominant party is fading at an alarming rate. After all, the Congress got wiped out in Telangana shortly after Rahul travelled across the state. It would require a huge organisational effort and sustained follow up to the Gandhi scion’s welcome outreach on foot to people for this to get adequate electoral benefits for his party in 2024.

The writer is a Delhi-based political commentator. Views expressed are personal.

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