Can Nitish Kumar hold on to power in Bihar if the JD(U)’s alliance with the BJP comes to an end?

Are the days of the Bharatiya Janata Party-Janata Dal (United) {JD(U)} alliance numbered?

While the two alliance partners have been sniping at one another since they joined hands in 2017, there’s a very real danger that the partnership in Bihar will collapse soon.

Also read: Explained: Does the growing rift between BJP and JD(U) mean a split is inevitable in Bihar?

The new crisis emerged as Nitish Kumar, who leads the JD(U), skipped the Niti Aayog governing council meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday. This is the fourth consecutive time since 17 July that Kumar has steered clear of the invitations to meetings by the BJP-led government. He had earlier skipped the oath-taking ceremony of the President of India, Droupadi Murmu.

There are also reports that Nitish Kumar called Congress chief Sonia Gandhi amid the BJP-JDU rift. While it is unknown what transpired during the call, News9Live said that the talks lasted for 15 minutes.

Buzz of the impending split also grew louder as the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the main opposition party, said it was ready to embrace Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his party if he broke ranks with the BJP.

Also read: From Nitish’s closest confidante to ‘Amit Shah’s man’: Who is RCP Singh at the centre of JD(U)-BJP drama?

“If Nitish chooses to dump NDA, what choice do we have except to embrace him (gale lagaenge). RJD is committed to fighting the BJP. If the chief minister decides to join this fight, we will have to take him along,” said RJD national vice-president Shivanand Tiwary.

Incidentally, the RJD has called for a meeting with all of its MLAs on Tuesday while the JD(U) has called all its MLAs to be present in Patna by Monday evening.

With a split on the horizon, it will be interesting to see which party has the numbers and who can stake claim to form the government in Patna.

Number game

The Bihar Legislative Assembly comprises a total of 243 seats, bringing the majority mark to 122 seats.

In the 2020 Assembly elections, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) came out on top, bagging 125 seats. Of the 125, the BJP was on top with 74 seats and the JD(U) came in second with 43 seats. The Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) won four seats and the Hindustan Awaam Party (Secular) {HAM(S)} bagged another four.

As per the Election Commission data, the BJP’s vote share was 19.5 per cent while the JD(U) had won 15.4 per cent.

This means that if the JD(U) pulls out of the alliance, the BJP does not have the numbers to remain in power.

Can Nitish join hands with the RJD?

If Nitish Kumar does sever ties with the BJP, he does have the option of joining hands with his one-time partner — the RJD. It’s important to note here that the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) had pulled out of the alliance with the RJD in 2017, citing the ‘no-corruption’ plank. The charges then were against Lalu’s son and deputy chief minister Tejashwi Yadav.

In the 2020, the Tejashwi Yadav-led party fought the elections in a ‘Mahagathbandhan’ with the Congress, the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) {CPI(ML)} and the Communist Party of India (CPI).

In the elections, the Grand Alliance won 110 seats, of which RJD bagged 75, the Congress won 19, the CPI(ML) won 12 and the CPI secured two seats.

In June, the RJD received a huge boost when four All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) MLAs joined the Tejashwi Yadav-led party, pushing the numbers of the party to 80 in the 243-member House in Bihar.

If Nitish now with his 43 MLAs does decide to partner up with Tejashwi, they will have the numbers 123 members in the Assembly, two shy of the majority mark, which would be secured along with the Grand Alliance partners.

What unfolds in Bihar is yet to be seen. Will the BJP be able to placate Nitish Kumar and keep the alliance together? Or will Nitish Kumar pull out and hope for a better future with the RJD?

With inputs from agencies

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