Chinese blockade of Taiwan will fail, claims US

Senior Pentagon officials testified before Congress on Tuesday that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan would probably fail and that Beijing would have a very tough time effectively carrying out a direct military invasion of the self-governing island.

The Chinese military has increased its presence recently in the area of Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own. Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly gave orders for his nation’s armed forces to be prepared to invade by 2027, according to US CIA Director William Burns.

Uncertainty surrounds whether Xi would authorise occupying Taiwan militarily, whether by a blockade or an invasion.

An embargo would give Taiwan’s friends time to gather resources for Taiwan, according to Ely Ratner, US assistant secretary of defence for Indo-Pacific security affairs. The financial effects of a blockade would harden international resolve against China, he said.

“It would likely not succeed, and it would be a huge risk of escalation for the PRC, where it would likely have to consider whether or not it was willing to ultimately start attacking commercial maritime vessels,” Ratner told the House Armed Services Committee, using an acronym for the People’s Republic of China.

A blockade is also not very likely, according to US Army Major General Joseph McGee, vice director for strategy, planning, and policies of the Pentagon’s Joint Staff.

“I think it is an option but probably not a highly likely option, when you start looking at the military options – much easier to talk about a blockade than actually do a blockade,” McGee told lawmakers.

In August of last year and again in April, China conducted war games surrounding Taiwan, and its military continue to patrol the island virtually constantly.

In its biennial report, Taiwan’s defence ministry stated last week that China was enhancing its air force along the coast that Taiwan was facing by maintaining the deployment of new fighters and drones at enlarged air facilities.

Nevertheless, McGee said that a frontal, amphibious attack of the island would be difficult for China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). He claimed that it would be unable to accomplish that during a surprise attack.

“They would have to mass tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of troops on the eastern coast and that would be a clear signal,” McGee said.

“There is absolutely nothing easy about a PLA invasion of Taiwan.”

“They would also encounter an island that has very few beaches, where you could land craft on mountainous terrain, and a population that we believe that would be willing to fight so there is absolutely nothing easy about a PLA invasion of Taiwan,” he said.

(With agency inputs)