CPI inflation shock resets Fed rate cut bets

Startling headline CPI for May forces markets to shift interest rate outlooks.

Jun 12, 2024 - 22:30

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CPI inflation shock resets Fed rate cut bets

Updated at 10:30 AM EDT

U.S. inflation pressures eased notably last month, giving the Federal Reserve a key set of figures ahead of its key June rate decision later in the session.

On Wednesday the headline Consumer Price Index for May was pegged by the Commerce Department at 3.3%, down from the prior month's tally of 3.4% and just inside Wall Street's consensus forecast.

On a monthly basis, inflation was flat with April levels, much slower than the 0.3% gain in April and marking the smallest rate of price increases in four years.

Consumer Price Index inflation y-o-y through mid-June 2024
Bureau of Labor Statistics/TheStreet

So-called core inflation, which strips out volatile components like food and energy, slowed to an annual rate of 3.4%, the lowest in more three years and also better than Wall Street's 3.5% forecast.

The monthly reading of 0.2% was also inside Wall Street forecasts, and inside the final April reading of 0.3%.

The Fed will publish fresh growth and inflation projections alongside its June rate decision later today in Washington.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

"The weaker-than-expected CPI will allow the Fed to start cutting interest rates as soon as September, since we have now seen multiple encouraging inflation readings, after the concerning spike in inflation earlier this year," said Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital in Dallas.

"There's a clear path to a soft landing and the Fed may very well be coming to the market's rescue in as little as three months," he added. "Investors won't have to wait long to hear the Fed's thinking on rates and inflation."

U.S. stocks powered higher in the wake of the data release, with the S&P 500 soaring to a fresh record high of 5,444.68 points, with the benchmark last seen 69 points, or 1.3% higher on the session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, rose 218 points while the rate-sensitive Nasdaq scaled a fresh record peak and was last seen 342 points, or 1.87% higher on the day.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields fell 10 basis points following the data release to change hands at 4.299% while 2-year notes were pegged 0.13 percentage point lower at 4.708%.

US consumer prices did not rise in May 2024. The last time prices did not increase was in July 2022!#inflation #FederalReserve pic.twitter.com/fnxLcfVhkU— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) June 12, 2024

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six global currencies, was marked 0.75% lower at 104.442, the lowest in nearly two months.

The Fed will publish fresh growth and inflation forecasts later today, which will feed into the so-called dot plots, which are a summary of where officials see Fed interest rates over the coming year and beyond.

The last set of dots, published in March, pointed to three quarter-point rate cuts this year.

"Jerome Powell will probably enjoy this afternoon’s press conference more than usual," said Chris Larkin, managing director for trading and investing at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.

"When the Fed will actually make its move remains an open question, but today’s CPI will be welcomed by stock market bulls who were beginning to worry that a 2024 rate cut was slipping through their fingers," he added. "The story isn’t over, since the Fed has said it wants to see an established trend of falling inflation before it lowers rates. But a September cut is still in play—as long as we get more numbers like this one."

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The CME Group's FedWatch now suggests little chance of a Fed rate move over the next policy meeting after today, in July, but now pegs the chances of a September rate cut at around 72%, up from just over 50% prior to the inflation release.