Germany preparing for 'hybrid' Russian assault against NATO members, leaked war plans reveal

Europe is preparing for the potential escalation of conflict in Ukraine and the extension of hostilities to NATO member states as revealed in leaked documents from the German Ministry of Defence, according to a report citing German newspaper BILD.

According to The New York Post report, citing the German newspaper, the documents indicate that Germany’s military is gearing up for a potential “hybrid” Russian assault in Eastern Europe.

The leaked document depicts a series of concerning scenarios, notably the “Alliance Defense 2025,” which may commence as soon as February, involving Russia deploying an extra 200,000 troops. This deployment could be triggered by a reduction in Western financial aid to Ukraine, paving the way for a significant Russian offensive in the upcoming spring, added the report.

The former commander of the United States Army in Europe validates Germany’s concerns regarding Russia’s potential initiation of a global conflict. He underscores the possibility that Russian President Vladimir Putin could take drastic actions if he deems NATO unprepared.

“If nations don’t take the threat of Russia ‘seriously’ and act in ‘alliance’ then a World War Three could develop in just 18 months,” Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges was quoted as saying.

According to the report, the documents also discuss the possibility of Russia instigating conflict in the Baltic states around July. This could involve severe cyberattacks and taking advantage of the dissatisfaction among Russian nationals in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. By September, Russia might engage in a significant military exercise called “Zapad 2024,” involving approximately 50,000 troops in western Russia and Belarus.

A crucial element of this strategy may include the movement of troops and mid-range missiles to Kaliningrad, a small Russian territory situated between Lithuania and Poland, both of which are NATO members. The plan might encompass a propaganda campaign aimed at creating the perception of an impending NATO attack, with the goal of seizing the Suwalki Gap, a strategic corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad.

Towards the end of the year, Russia could take advantage of the US presidential transition period to incite unrest in the Suwalki Gap area. Propaganda may be used to fabricate border conflicts or riots. In response, the scenario suggests the deployment of 30,000 German troops to defend against an estimated 70,000 Russian forces in Belarus. By May 2025, NATO may intervene to deter further Russian advances, potentially leading to direct combat between Western and Russian forces.

Despite these potential scenarios, both President Putin and Russian officials consistently deny any intentions to expand the conflict in Ukraine beyond its borders. Nevertheless, European allies are treating the threat seriously and preparing for various possibilities.

In the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war that began in February 2022, there have been significant casualties, with an estimated half a million Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or injured. Recently, Sweden’s Civil Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin and the country’s military Commander-in-Chief Micael Bydén have expressed concerns about the possibility of war in Sweden, emphasizing the need for comprehensive preparedness.

While not commenting on specific scenarios, the German Defense Ministry acknowledged to BILD that considering various potential situations, even unlikely ones, is a routine part of military operations and training.

With inputs from agencies