Gujarat Elections: Congress is silent, AAP has gained ground but BJP remains steadfast and indomitable

Gujarat, since its inception, has had a tradition of bipolar state politics that wavers between the BJP and the Congress. The Congress won the first three assembly elections in 1962, 1967, and 1972 in Gujarat. It was defeated in the 1975 elections following the declaration of emergency by an alliance of parties led by Morarji Desai, the Jan Sangh, and rebel Congress leader Chimanbhai Patel’s Kimlop party.

Since 1995, the BJP has swept every assembly election. It has ruled since, with the exception of a brief period from 1996 to 1998 when its leader Shankarsinh Vaghela rebelled and formed a government with the assistance of the Congress. Earlier regional parties founded by notable figures such as Chimanbhai Patel, Shankarsinh Vaghela, and Keshubhai Patel ran in elections, but they failed to make an impact on the state’s electorate, which were dominated by the BJP and the Congress.

In 2022, the electoral trumpet has been blown in the poll-bound state of Gujarat. As for Gujarat, it will witness a state assembly election for 182 seats in two phases: phase one on 1 December and phase two on 5 December.

It is worth noting that the ingress of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), has already transmogrified Gujarat’s elections from a bipartisan poll to a three-cornered election contest.

Let’s vet the Gujarat assembly polls in a systematic manner considering all the stake-holders:

Gujarat state is not only the home turf of prime minister Narendra Modi and home minister Amit Shah but is also deemed the bastion of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) and, sans mincing words, the laboratory of Hindutva as per some political commentators.

As per a 2017 survey by Saurabh Goenka,”Gujarat, which accounts for only 5% of the national population, produces 7.3% of national GDP and 5.6% of total FDI inflows. Gujarat outperforms the majority of Indian states in terms of industrial production. The state accounts for 18.4% of national output and 20% of India’s exports. Gujarat also accounts for 23% of national milk production. Gujarat produces 40% of the silk. Gujarat is home to 7.2% of all Indian universities. Gujarat is the world leader in processed diamond production, accounting for 72% of global output. Surat polishes eight out of every ten diamonds in the world. Gujarat is also a national powerhouse for denim fabric manufacture, accounting for 70% of national output. Gujarat’s GDP has increased more than 1300 times in the 56 years since its inception. On average, the annual income of Gujaratis increased from Rs. 339 in 1960 to Rs. 1.38 lakhs in 2016. The state controls nearly 10% of the national power capacity”. Overall, the state is a vanguard on development parameters.

BJP has an edge over its opponents

The BJP has been in power since 1995, that is 27 years. It is eyeing its 7^th successive term. From Keshubhai Patel to Narendra Modi to Bhupendra Patel, the continuity in governance and administration gives the BJP an edge over its opponents. The ruling party’s major electoral tenets of Hindutva, “double engine” growth, regional security, continuity in power are likely to remain at the forefront.

PM Modi, the BJP’s star campaigner, has upped the frequency of his visits to Gujarat and addressed massive gatherings in several regions of the state in recent weeks.

Modi’s events have been characterised by the introduction of development projects with the promise of more, while his speeches have focused on the BJP government’s contribution to Gujarat’s development over the last 20 to 25 years. His underscoring of the “Narendra-Bhupendra” (PM Narendra Modi and CM Bhupendra Patel) “double engine” combination for rapid development has also been constant.

Congress hopes to end its 27-year opposition tenure

The Congress, for its part, hopes to end its 27-year opposition tenure, but has remained silent thus far, with its national leaders largely missing. Belying the optics and theatrics, it actually has a foothold on the ground, with 62 seats currently in the assembly. The Congress is the only party in the fray that is abnormally quiet, nearly missing.

Former party president Rahul Gandhi has been primarily absent due to his Bharat Jodo Yatra, which began on 7 September and will last nearly five months. The party has shown Gujarat voters the accomplishments of its government in adjacent Rajasthan.

The Congress’ key campaign platforms are inflation, unemployment, social harmony, and anti-incumbency against the BJP. However, there appears to be a sweet surrender of the congress to AAP in urban areas and a tacit understanding wherein AAP is permitted to campaign and collate for urban votes, while the AAP ostensibly capitulated in the congress stronghold’s rural areas. The Congress appears to be acting passively in order to save its beacon by retaining the seats it won in 2017.

AAP’s intense ‘campaign’ and alluring ‘freebies’

The fledgling AAP is the recent entrant in the electrified poll-bound state which has taken aback everyone with its intense ‘campaign’ and pre-poll ‘guarantees’, if euphemism is to be applied for ‘freebies’.

The AAP is banking on its “revadis”, in order to entice Gujarati voters. A litany of pre-poll promises have been assured by Arvind Kejriwal in his multiple visits to Gujarat in the recent past, including free electricity up to 300 units for each household per month; a monthly allowance of Rs 1,000 for all women above 18; a waiver of all pending electricity bills issued before December 31, 2021; free power for agriculture; and a monthly allowance of Rs 3,000 for unemployed youth. To his dismay, “Kejriwal’s freebie cultural gimmick—often his main election plank—won’t survive the turf of Gujarat,” notes columnist Gopal Goswami from Gujarat.

Freebies versus welfare debate

The AAP and BJP have been at loggerheads for several weeks over the debate of freebies versus welfare schemes, where the BJP supposedly seems to project its upper hand by latching on to the observation of the Supreme Court against the “revadi culture, which may culminate in an imminent bankruptcy for the state”.

Furthermore, with the exception of this altercation, the 10-year-old outfit has outrun other parties in terms of kickstarting its campaign and announcing candidates, including the CM face.

Full marks to AAP for the fervour of its campaign, the political jibes, and the attempt to strike the right chords, including the “soft-Hindutva” jugular: The AAP supremo is seen visiting Hindu temples, pleading with the Prime Minister to print currency depicting Bhagwan Ganesh and Devi Lakshmi Mata, and offering senior citizens a free trip to Ayodhya if they voted to power in Gujarat.

But, what AAP lacks is consistency in its stand and vision. The disparity and incongruity in its stance are glaringly visible for the voters to see. Kejriwal must keep his state party chief, Gopal Italia, from spewing vitriol, berating Hindus, and disparaging their faith if he intends to compete neck and neck with the BJP.

Congress, on the other hand, has a lot of potential if they let go of the Gandhis and focus on developing regional and young leaders.

No matter what, AAP has gained ground, and approximately 10% of the vote share will be transferred from the Congress to AAP, while the BJP remains steadfast and indomitable.

Yuvraj Pokharna is an independent journalist and columnist. He tweets at @pokharnaprince. Views expressed are personal. 

Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News,
India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.