IPL Playoff Qualification Scenarios: RCB's hopes boosted; How PBKS, RR, CSK, LSG, MI and KKR can qualify

Royal Challengers Bangalore moved closer to IPL 2023 playoffs with an eight-wicket victory over Sunrisers Hyderabad on Thursday. Virat Kohli scored a record sixth IPL ton to guide his side to the fourth spot in the points table and they now stand a chance to finish in the top-two. Defending champions Gujarat Titans are the only team to qualify for the knockout phase so far.

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With five games left in IPL 2023 league phase, we take a look at each team’s chances and what they need to make it to the playoffs.

Points table first:

Royal Challengers Bangalore (13 matches, 14 points, +0.180 NRR)

Remaining matches: vs GT (21 May in Bengaluru)

By beating SRH, RCB have taken a lead in the playoffs race. They have a superior NRR over Mumbai Indians (-0.128), the only team other than CSK and LSG which can also reach 16 points other than Bangalore. In such a case, ideally, a win against Gujarat Titans should be enough to qualify even if MI win their last match. RCB can also have a top-two finish if CSK and LSG lose and MI stay behind in the NRR race.

Chennai Super Kings (13 matches, 15 points, +0.381 NRR)

Remaining match: vs DC (20 May in Delhi)

CSK can reach the playoffs with a win in their last league game against Delhi Capitals and can also finish in the top-two if they achieve a higher net run rate (NRR) than Lucknow Super Giants who can tie them on 17 points. In case CSK lose to DC, they would hope no more than two of LSG, RCB or MI do better than them.

Lucknow Super Giants (13 matches, 15 points, +0.304 NRR)

Remaining match: vs KKR (20 May in Kolkata)

It’s a simple equation for LSG. Win against KKR and reach the playoffs. They can also finish in the top-two if CSK lose to DC or despite a win register an inferior NRR to LSG. In case LSG lose to KKR, they will need at least two of CSK, MI and RCB to not cross 15 points.

Mumbai Indians (13 matches, 14 points, -0.128 NRR)

Remaining match: vs SRH (21 May in Mumbai)

RCB’s victory over SRH has added to MI’s misery. Both MI and RCB can win their last matches and reach 16 points but MI (-0.128) have a worse NRR than RCB (+0.180). The best case scenario for MI is for RCB to lose. But if that doesn’t happen then, Mumbai will hope to score 180+ batting first against SRH and register a win by a margin of a minimum of 82 runs to improve their NRR over RCB. That may still not be enough though as RCB can improve their NRR further with one match remaining.

Mumbai Indians can also finish in the top-two with a win over SRH if CSK, LSG and RCB lose their matches, or if CSK and LSG lose and RCB despite a win in their last match fail to have a better NRR than MI.

Rajasthan Royals (13 matches, 12 points, +0.140 NRR)

Remaining match: vs PBKS (19 May in Dharamsala)

RR can only reach 14 points and CSK and LSG are already ahead of them. In such a case, RR will need to beat PBKS in their last game and will need MI and RCB to lose their last matches to have any chance of qualification. In the end, NRR will play a big role in deciding the qualification if all three teams finish on 14 points.

Currently, RCB have a better NRR than MI and RR. Rajasthan will need to beat PBKS by 12 runs after scoring 180+ batting first to have a better NRR than RCB.

Kolkata Knight Riders (13 matches, 12 points, -0.256 NRR)

Remaining match: vs LSG (20 May in Kolkata)

KKR can also only reach 14 points which means they would not want MI and RCB to get more than the same number of points. CSK and LSG with 15 points each are already ahead of them while GT have reached the playoffs. With only the fourth spot to fight for, KKR will be in contention if MI lose to SRH and RCB lose to GT. The NRR will then become the deciding factor if teams get stuck on 14 points.

Punjab Kings (13 matches, 12 points, -0.308 NRR)

Remaining matches: vs RR (19 May in Dharamsala)

With the defeat to DC, PBKS’ qualification hopes have been dented and also their NRR. Now they can only hope to beat RR and reach 14 points. In this case, they will not want KKR to reach 14 points. Also, they will want MI to lose to SRH and RCB to lose to GT. In case of a tie on points, NRR will be deciding factor and PBKS are currently not strong on that front.

Delhi Capitals and Sunrisers Hyderabad are already out of the playoffs race.

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