IPL qualification scenarios: MI, LSG have eye on top-two finish after GT become first team into playoffs

It took 62 matches for the first official qualification for the IPL 2023 playoffs. Gujarat Titans beat Sunrisers Hyderabad on Monday and have thus assured themselves of a spot in the next round for a second year running. Following the 34 run defeat, SRH have become the second team to be eliminated from playoff contention – alongside Delhi Capitals.

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With eight matches left, seven sides still harbour hopes of making the playoffs and there are three slots at stake. Lucknow Super Giants and Mumbai Indians, fourth and third in the IPL points table respectively, will be in action on Tuesday to push their plan of not just making the playoffs but finishing in the top-two.

Chennai Super Kings (13 matches, 15 points)

Remaining matches: vs DC (20 May in Delhi)

CSK can seal a playoff spot with a win over Delhi in their last group game. Only GT and winner of LSG vs MI can match or do better than CSK in the table. If Chennai beat Delhi, they will most certainly clinch top-two unless MI win both their matches or LSG win both of theirs while posting better net run rate (NRR) than CSK. If Delhi beat Chennai, CSK can go progress but would need results elsewhere to help them out.

Mumbai Indians (12 matches, 14 points)

Remaining matches: vs LSG (16 May in Lucknow), vs SRH (21 May in Mumbai)

Back-to-back wins over RCB and GT have put MI in a good position to qualify and even make the top-two. If they win both their matches, MI will progress by finishing in the top-two. If they win one, they’d have to wish LSG lose one of their two matches and at least one of RCB or PBKS lose one or finish with poor NRR even with wins. If MI lose both matches, they can finish fourth but would need plenty of results to go their way but that scenario would be tricky given their poor NRR (-0.117).

Lucknow Super Giants (12 matches, 13 points)

Remaining matches: vs MI (16 May in Lucknow), vs KKR (20 May in Kolkata)

If LSG win both their matches, against MI and KKR, they will definitely progress to the IPL Playoffs and it may even get them a top-two finish. For that, CSK need to have an inferior NRR which is currently neck-and-neck: CSK on +0.381 and LSG on +0.309.

If LSG lose to MI, they will need to beat KKR in the final league game and hope one of RCB or PBKS finishes on 14 points and CSK lose to DC. Or, CSK beat DC and both RCB, PBKS end on a maximum 14 points. However, if LSG go on another losing streak, they will be eliminated.

Royal Challengers Bangalore (12 matches, 12 points)

Remaining matches: vs SRH (18 May in Hyderabad), vs GT (21 May in Bengaluru)

If RCB win their last two matches of the league stage, they’re almost certain of qualifying for the playoffs thanks to their boosted NRR following the massive 112-run win in Jaipur. If they win one, they will need the loser of LSG vs MI to suffer two straight defeats and PBKS to drop at least one of theirs. In such a scenario, NRR will come in to play and RCB, playing on the last day of the league, will know what is required of them.

Rajasthan Royals (13 matches, 12 points)

Remaining matches: vs PBKS (19 May in Dharamsala)

Royals have lost six of their last eight matches and can do a maximum of 14 points if they beat PBKS. GT, CSK are already better placed than them and the winner of LSG vs MI will take the lead as well. It leaves them with only one option: beat Punjab in Dharamsala and hope RCB lose at least one more game coupled with the loser of LSG vs MI to go ahead and suffer another defeat.

Kolkata Knight Riders (13 matches, 12 points)

Remaining matches: vs LSG (20 May in Kolkata)

KKR can do at most 14 points if they beat LSG in their final home game of the season. At best, they can take fourth spot with that win. For that to happen, both RCB and PBKS should lose at least one of their matches and stay on 14 points or lower. If there is a tie on 14 points, NRR will come into play. As things stand, KKR’s NRR of -0.256 is worse than that of MI (-0.117), RCB (+0.166) and RR (+0.140) among the teams that can tie on 14 points. However, if KKR were to lose to LSG, they would be eliminated.

Punjab Kings (12 matches, 12 points)

Remaining matches: vs DC (17 May in Dharamsala), vs RR (19 May in Dharamsala)

Punjab have two games in hand and can reach 16 points if they beat Delhi and Royals in their home fixtures. If PBKS get to 16 points, five other teams could reach 16-plus points and NRR will come into the picture. That’s where PBKS would need a big boost given currently it stands at -0.268. One win from two matches might not be enough for a playoff qualification.

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