Is China behind PM Modi’s decision to travel to South Africa for BRICS summit?

There was increased speculation that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would attend the summit of BRICS nations in South Africa virtually. But in a move that has surprised many, who thought he would follow Russian president Vladimir Putin’s footsteps, the PM has decided to travel to Johannesburg where leaders of the bloc that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa will gather.

The Indian premier spoke to South African president Cyril Ramaphosa and accepted the invitation to visit Johannesburg for the meeting from 22 August to 24 August.

How Modi decided to attend BRICS summit

After their telephonic conversation, the Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement, “President Ramaphosa invited the PM for the BRICS Summit being hosted by South Africa on August 22-24, 2023 and briefed him on the preparations for the same. The PM accepted the invitation and conveyed that he looked forward to his visit to Johannesburg to participate in the Summit.”

They “positively assessed the progress in bilateral cooperation, including in the context of the thirtieth anniversary of the establishment of bilateral diplomatic relations being celebrated in 2023”, the statement said. It also said that they also exchanged views on matters of mutual interest.

Also read: Dumping the Dollar: Will a new BRICS currency replace the US currency for trade?

There were reports that like Putin, Modi would attend the summit virtually. Reuters reported on 2 August that the PM would not travel to South Africa. One Indian government official told the news agency that there was growing discomfort in New Delhi about being part of groupings like BRICS and SCO [Shanghai Cooperation Organisation] which China dominates, especially as India inches closer to the United States and other Western powers.

China and Russia, which are facing isolation from the US and the European Union, are constantly looking to expand their economic influence over developing countries. But even as Beijing tries to assert its importance, India and Brazil have their say in the bloc. And it is crucial that they make their presence felt.

Why Modi’s visit is important

PM Modi’s decision to go to South Africa matters. It comes at a time when around 20 countries have formally applied to join the BRICS. They include Argentina, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Iran, and Venezuela, said Brazilian foreign affairs minister Mauro Vieira recently.

Among these, Saudi Arabia and UAE are considered close allies of India. However, the issue is said to have raised some concerns among members of the bloc many fearing that their influence would decrease if pro-China nations are admitted.

The important decision on whether to expand the five-nation bloc is likely to be taken in Johannesburg, reports Hindustan Times. The focus will be on including Indonesia and Saudi Arabia.

A Bloomberg article in late July said that India and Brazil were pushing back against China’s bid to rapidly expand BRICS to grow its political clout and take on the US. The two countries reportedly raised objections in preparatory talks in the run-up to the summit.

India wants strict rules on how and when other nations could move close to the group without formally expanding it. India and Brazil want to discuss bringing in additional nations with observer status, the report said.

External affairs ministry spokesperson Arindam Bagchi on Thursday reiterated India’s position that BRICS should be expanded through “full consultation and consensus” among members of the bloc.

“We have talked about India’s position on expansion, we have clarified our position in the past. As mandated by the leaders last year, BRICS members are internally discussing the guiding principles, standards, criteria, and procedures for the BRICS expansion process on the basis of full consultation and consensus,” the MEA spokesperson told a regular media briefing.

What is Russia’s stance?

Russia does not have a firm position on expanding BRICS, Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Council on Foreign and Defence, told Bloomberg.

“It’s broadly in favour of BRICS expansion, but without any enthusiasm. It is following others’ lead. We won’t block any decision.”

Members of BRICS have not sanctioned Russia over the war in Ukraine.

Putin’s possible attendance put South Africa in a fix at first. But the Russian president has decided to participate virtually. With this, he avoids the risk of arrest on a warrant from the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes in Ukraine if he travels to the country, which is a member of the tribunal.

South Africa took over the chair of BRICS from China at the beginning of this year. The summit in Johannesburg comes at a time when ties between Beijing and Washington remain tense. Relations between New Delhi and Beijing also hit a low after a clash in Galwan in 2020 in which 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers were killed.

With inputs from agencies