Mystery of Taiwan no-fly zone: China to launch Long March-4B rocket, flight path worked out

Taipei: After announcing a no-fly zone around Taiwan from April 16 to 18, China is planning to launch a vehicle identified as the Long March 4B.

For the purpose of launching the vehicle, Beijing has also extended the no-fly zone period by six hours over concerns about falling debris.

The restrictions have been protested by authorities in Taiwan who say that the ban would affect 60 to 70 per cent of flights going between Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, as well as flights between Taiwan and South Korea, Japan and North America.

“The ban would disrupt Taiwan’s northern flight information region (FIR) and they were not aware of the reason for the restrictions,” four officials outside China told Reuters on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

According to Taiwan News, China’s Fujian Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning on Thursday saying “there may be falling rocket wreckage” between 9 am to 3 pm on 16 April.

On Wednesday, Duan Dang, a Vietnamese military analyst, said that the purpose of setting up the no-fly zone is to set up a launch from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center.

Although I haven’t seen the potential NOTAM from Taipei ACC, my conjecture is that the impending no-fly zone north of Taiwan could be linked to a launch from the Jiuquan Space Launch Center on April 16. pic.twitter.com/eCRPnBz4iG

— Duan Dang (@duandang) April 12, 2023

He was also one of the first to report on the navigation warning by China.

The no-fly zone has been imposed after China rounded off several days of military training around self-ruled Taiwan, a response to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s recent meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California which infuriated Beijing.

According to OPSGROUP, an aviation industry cooperative that advises on flight risks, previous restrictions imposed during Chinese military drills last August resulted in significant disruptions to flights in the region, with some pilots forced to carry extra fuel.

Flight trajectory mapped

Based on the location of the launch, the type of rocket and the intervals given for no-fly zones in China and north of Taiwan, Duan created a map showing the estimated trajectory of the rocket’s path.

No-fly zone enforced north of Taiwan due to Long March 4B rocket launch carrying Fengyun-3G Weather Satellite on April 16. pic.twitter.com/0YcL7nGgoS

— Duan Dang (@duandang) April 14, 2023

About Long March 4B

Long March 4B is part of China’s Long March rocket family.

According to Space.com, “The Long March was first planned as a backup launch vehicle to the Long March 3 series for launches of communications satellites.”

It added, “However, the three-stage, 145-foot-long (44 m) Long March 4B and the 150-foot-long (46 m) 4C were repurposed to launch meteorological and other satellites in SSO, both with a maximum payload of 6,200 pounds (2,800 kg).”

With inputs from agencies

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