One Year of Russia-Ukraine War: Will the conflict end in 2023?

It’s been a year since Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine from the north, east, and south. President Vladimir Putin dubbed the invasion a “special military operation” aimed at “demilitarisation” and “denazification” of the country to protect ethnic Russians, prevent Kyiv’s NATO membership and keep it in Russia’s “sphere of influence”. Ukraine calls it a war and it’s a long-drawn one.

The conflict has killed thousands of civilians, including hundreds of children and many more troops on both sides. There’s no exact toll and the estimates are likely to be underestimated. Millions have lost their homes and fled their motherland and city after populated city has been reduced to rubble.

The Russia-Ukraine war has left the world divided and fueled fears that confrontation could slide into an open conflict between Russia and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which comprises the US, the UK and its allies. Two of the world’s most powerful countries – America and China – have picked their sides.

Also read: One year of Russia-Ukraine war: What has happened thus far, what could happen next

The US has sent billions of dollars of weapons and other military aid to Ukraine – $27.5 billion – since the beginning of the Joe Biden administration. If that wasn’t enough, on 20 February the US president made an unannounced trip to Kyiv. The message to Russia is clear that Washington will stick by Ukraine as long as it takes.

China had “maintained neutrality” in the conflict thus far. But its claims are fast-fading. Top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi visited Moscow and met with Putin on 22 February and now there are reports that Xi Jinping might be the next high-profile visitor.

The US said that it believes that China might supply “lethal aid” to Russia in the war. Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy predicted that if Beijing chose to ally with Moscow, it will bring world war.

Putin remains defiant. He has suspended Russia’s participation in the New START treaty, the only remaining nuclear deal, with the US, and a day before the anniversary of his “special military operation”, he vowed to strengthen his country’s nuclear forces. It’s getting tenser and there seems to be no end in sight.

Which way will the war go from here? And will it end in 2023? We try to find the answers.

Is Russia planning a new offensive?

There are talks of a new offensive. NATO general secretary general told reporters last week that they feared new major Russian offensive in Ukraine has already started.

“We see no sign whatsoever that President Putin is preparing for peace… What we see is President Putin and Russia still wanting to control Ukraine,” he said. “We see how they are sending more troops, more weapons, more capabilities.”

There were also claims that Russia was amassing aircraft but they were dismissed by the UK defence ministry.