Pakistan election results 2024: What’s next for PML-N, PPP and PTI?

Pakistan may get a coalition government again after no party bagged the majority in the 12th general elections. Parleys have already begun between political parties in the South Asian country that went to polls on 8 February.

Independents backed by jailed former prime minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party have secured 98 of the 245 counted National Assembly constituencies by 1830 GMT (12 midnight IST), winning the most seats overall. At 69, Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has acquired most seats by a single party, reported Reuters.

The Bhutto scion Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) is a distant third with 53 seats.

Voters cast their ballot for 265 seats in the National Assembly, Pakistan’s lower house of Parliament, to elect a national government. A political party needs 133 seats for a simple majority.

As no party has reached the majority mark, what are the likely scenarios that can emerge in the deeply divided political climate in Pakistan? Let’s take a closer look.

A coalition in the making?

While claiming victory on Friday (9 February) evening, Pakistan’s three-time PM Nawaz Sharif said he was open to talks to form a coalition government.

Addressing his supporters, he said that “we don’t have enough of a majority to form a government without the support of others and we invite allies to join the coalition so we can make joint efforts to pull Pakistan out of its problems.”

We will have to sit together to settle all matters,” Sharif was quoted as saying by Associated Press (AP).

Just a day before, the former premier had rebuffed the idea of a coalition, telling reporters after casting his franchise that he wanted a single party to run Pakistan for a full five-year term.

Notably, no prime minister has completed a full term in the country’s 77-year history.

Sharif in his speech yesterday said that he has tasked his brother, former PM Shehbaz Sharif, to reach out to Bhutto’s PPP, Muttahida Qaumi Movement Pakistan (MQMP) and others to forge an alliance.

Shehbaz met Bilawal and his father Asif Ali Zardari late on Friday night at Punjab caretaker Chief Minister Mohsin Naqvi’s Lahore residence, sources told Dawn.

A PPP source said that the leaders discussed the election results and the post-poll scenario, adding that “the meeting was a kind of beginning of something big”.

“The meeting was a very brief one; it didn’t last very long. Zardari landed in Lahore on Friday evening while Bilawal was already there. The two drove to [Naqvi’s] place where [Shehbaz] was already waiting for their arrival. It was a brief discussion but apparently it ended on a positive note,” Dawn quoted the source as saying.

As per a Radio Pakistan report, the PPP and the PML-N have agreed to join hands to achieve political and economic stability in the country.

The PML-N and PPP had come together in 2022 to form the Pakistan Democratic Movement coalition government following the ouster of Imran Khan through a no-confidence vote in April of that year. Bilawal had served as the foreign minister in the Shehbaz-led government.

Bilawal, who was his party’s PM face in this election, had launched a scathing attack on Nawaz Sharif during the campaigning, declaring it was “impossible” for his party to ally with PML-N, noted Anadolu Agency.

On Friday, Shehbaz also spoke to MQM-P convener Dr Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui on the phone and both sides are expected to hold talks today.

The MQM-P convener has invited the winning independent candidates to join his party.

Can PTI form a government?

Imran Khan, who is in jail on corruption charges, has announced victory in the Pakistan elections. His PTI party shared an audio-visual message created using Artificial intelligence (AI) on X where Khan claimed that PTI-backed candidates are winning over 170 seats.

Khan said citing independent sources that PTI-backed candidates were getting over 150 seats before rigging started, Dawn reported. He also hit out at Nawaz for his “victory speech” despite his PML-N trailing behind.

Khan’s PTI has also claimed that it can form the government at the Centre and in the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces, reported Anadolu Agency.

However, constitutional experts say that as its candidates fought the elections as independents and without a uniform election symbol, they “cannot form the government without being merged into a party.”

PTI contenders had to run as independents after they were barred from using the party symbol — a cricket bat. Khan’s party lost its share of reserved seats for women and religious minorities after being declined the iconic symbol.

The winning independent candidates need to ally or merge with a party to form a government. Speaking to Anadolu Agency, Oves Anwar, director of the Islamabad-based Research Society of International Law, said he “does not see any problem” in independent candidates forming a government.

“There is no legal issue as independents can create a coalition or form national unity government with other smaller parties,” Anwar added.

As per a Dawn report, there are chances of PTI-backed independents merging with the Majlis Wahdatul Muslimeen (MWM) to keep its flock united and stake claim to reserved seats for women and minorities.

There are also speculations that the Bhutto scion’s PPP and the PTI-backed independent candidates could come together. However, Abdul Khalique Ali, a Karachi-based political commentator, told Anadolu that a coalition between PML-N, the PPP and some other regional and religio-political parties was “most likely.”

Moreover, the PML-N and PPP alliance would be favoured by the Pakistan military which is believed to be behind Khan’s removal from power in April 2022.

However, this could irk millions of Khan’s supporters, especially young voters, who have proved the unwavering popularity of the cricketer-turned-politician through their ballots.

We will have to wait and watch for the next government to take shape in Pakistan and how it would be received by its citizens.

With inputs from agencies