The Weather Report: India heading for monsoon break at fag end of August

Two successive monsoon depressions from Bay of Bengal wreaked havoc in India over the past week. The current system is even classified as a deep depression by India's Meteorological Department, a category lower than the cyclone. However, the United States-based organisation Joint Typhoon Warning Center categorises it as a tropical cyclone category.

Both the weather systems are East to West travelling and had a vigorous impact on the states of West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat where rivers are flowing above the danger mark and flood has hit certain areas of the states due to prolonged spells of heavy to very heavy rains.

The formation of tropical depression is very crucial for the country as they bring widespread rains in the core monsoon zones. However, this season the frequency is way higher than normal leading to non-stop heavy rains which eventually do not let the land and rivers hold the water and leading to floods.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall in Madhya Pradesh in the span of 24 hours on 16 August:

Dhundhadaka - 190.0mm
Shamshabad - 182.0mm
Narsingarh - 180.0mm
Jaisinagar - 175.4mm
Gairatganj - 168.4mm
Raisen - 168.0mm
Sehore - 148.0mm
Barod - 140.0mm
Jaora - 134.0mm
Arera Hills - 132.3mm
Chachoda - 129.0mm
Ashok Nagar - 126.0mm
Bhopal - 123.7mm

Rajasthan rains on 16 August:

Bhungra - 180mm
Dug - 166mm
Mount Abu - 120mm
Jaisamand - 117mm
Bhula - 103mm
Pipalkhunt - 102mm
Asnawar - 97mm
Dalot - 95mm
Raipur - 91mm
Arnod - 90mm
Gangdhar - 90mm
Pirawa - 90mm
Mahi Dam - 87mm
Garhi - 85mm
Jagpura - 85mm

The depression continues to move West and brought heavy to very heavy rains in various parts of Gujarat on 17 August:

Songadh - 189mm
Deesa - 183mm
Dantiwada - 183mm
Khergam - 161mm
Vadgam - 152mm
Posina - 150mm
Mehsana - 144mm
Danta - 143mm
Deodar - 141mm
Siddhpur - 138mm
Valsad - 129mm
Dharampur - 128mm

The highly moist Easterlies are blowing across the plains of North India leading to sultry weather whereas the topography of Himalayas are lifting the winds and deep convection is taking place leading to very heavy to extremely heavy rains over Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu division for past two days leading to landslides, cloud burst in the region.

All major water bodies and rivers are overflowing, the 90-year-old Chakki rail bridge in Kangra district collapsed on Saturday morning as record-breaking rains lashed the region.

Dharamshala recorded 330.0mm rainfall in a span of 24 hours till 8:30 am on 20 August. This is the highest ever single day rainfall recorded during the month of August breaking the previous record of 316.9mm on 6 August 1958.

Meanwhile, Kangra arport recorded a total of 346.6mm on Saturday morning and a whopping total of 564.4mm in the last two days.

Very heavy to extremely heavy rains in more parts of Himachal Pradesh on 20 August:
Kangra 346.6mm

Dharamshala - 333.0mm
Nehri - 296.0mm
Jogindernagar - 210.0mm
Bir - 190.0mm
Naina Devi - 184.4mm
Kataula - 165.4mm
Gohar - 129.0mm
Mandi - 119.6mm
Pandoh - 117.5mm
Palampur - 113.0mm
Dalhousie - 111.0mm
Mashobra - 109.5mm

Similarly many parts of Uttarakhand are experiencing unprecedented rains, very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall events in stations of Uttarakhand on 20 August:

NeelKanth Mandir - 342.0mm
Narendranagar AWS - 331.0mm
Rishikesh - 292.8mm
Yamkeshwar - 290.0mm
Sahastradhara - 225.0mm
Mussoorie GIC - 192.0mm
Khatima - 157.0mm
Chorgalia 156.0mm
Dehradun AP - 142.2mm
Kashipur - 140.0mm
Nainital - 117.5mm

The vagaries of weather in India are such that when Central India and Western Himalayas are experiencing record-breaking rains in August, it gets too hot to handle in North East India as unusual August heat is breaking all-time records.

On 18 August, Cherrapunji recorded 30.5°C maximum temperature, the highest ever for the month of August breaking the previous all-time record of 30.3°C on 19 August 2018.

On the same day, Cooch Behar recorded 39.1°C turning out to be the highest ever temperature in August, breaking the previous record of 38.9°C on 11 August 2006.

As per IMD data, total monsoon seasonal rains in India from 1 June till 20 August:

• India as a whole recorded a total of 671.4mm rainfall against the average of 619.8mm, a departure from normal Stands at +8%, it was at +8% past Saturday.

Subdivision wise seasonal rainfall figures:

• Southern Peninsula: Actual 619.3mm against the average of 494.6mm, +25 per cent departure from normal.

• East and North East India: Actual 797.6mm against the average of 971.0mm, -18% departure from normal.

• North West India: Actual 430.6mm against the average of 426.7mm, 1 per cent departure from normal.

• Central India: Actual 861.9mm against the average of 703.0mm, +23 per cent departure from normal.

Synoptic conditions over India on 21 August

The deep depression over Northwest Chhattisgarh and adjoining Northeast Madhya Pradesh and
Southeast Uttar Pradesh moved west-northwestwards with a speed of 13 kmph, weakened into a Depression and lay centered at 0530 hours IST on 21 August, 2022 over the same region near latitude 23.6°N and longitude 82.1°E, about 120 km west-northwest of Ambikapur (Chhattisgarh), 150 km southwest of Churk (Uttar Pradesh), 170 km east-southeast of Satna and 120 km east of Umaria (Madhya Pradesh).

It would continue to move west-northwest wards across north Madhya Pradesh and weaken into a well-marked Low Pressure Area during next 24 hours.

The western end of the monsoon trough at mean sea level continues to run along the foothills of
The Himalayas and its eastern end now passes through Bareilly, Lucknow, centre of Depression
over Northwest Chhattisgarh and adjoining Northeast Madhya Pradesh and Southeast Uttar Pradesh,
Digha and thence eastwards to northeast Bay of Bengal. The Low Pressure Area over southeast Pakistan & neighbourhood with associated cyclonic circulation extending upto 5.8 km above mean sea level persists.

The Western Disturbance is a trough in mid-tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above
mean sea level roughly along Long. 59°E and to the north of Lat. 30°N persists.

All-India weather forecast till 27 Augu

North India

The depression over Madhya Pradesh will move West and impact most parts of Rajasthan early in this week, the tropical weather system will also push strong Easterly winds in the plains of North India Gusting up to 30 to 50 km/h on Monday and Tuesday leading to highly windy weather.

As Rajasthan bears the direct impact of the depression, heavy to very heavy rains are expected in most parts of South and Central Rajasthan from 22 to 24 August. However, only light to moderate rains will occur in northern parts of Rajasthan.

Under the influence of the Easterlies and outer cloud bands of the depression passing spells of moderate rains will occur in Western Uttar Pradesh, Delhi-NCR, Haryana, Chandigarh and Punjab during 21 to 23 August.

The monsoon axis over the western Himalayas will once again shift south today, leading to overall reduction in rains over Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh but Easterlies will keep triggering moderate rains at the hilly states during this week, a reduction in heavy to extremely heavy rainfall events to be observed.

Expected precipitation accumulation till 27 August:

• Rajasthan - 110mm
• Uttarakhand - 80mm
• Himachal Pradesh - 60mm
• Jammu and Kashmir - 40mm
• Uttar Pradesh - 40mm
• Delhi NCR - 30mm
• Haryana - 20mm
• Punjab - 20mm

Central India

The depression over Madhya Pradesh likely to keep a hold over the state for the next two days, the persisting heavy rains increase the flood risk in multiple areas of the state, many stations in Madhya Pradesh to experience very heavy to extremely heavy rains during Sunday to Tuesday including Bhopal and Indore.

The west moving weather system will lead to an increase in rainfall activities over parts of East and North Gujarat early next week. Moderate to heavy rains are likely to occur in Gujarat from Monday to Wednesday.

As the depression will not have any direct impact over parts of Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra, regions will only experience patchy thunderstorms during the upcoming week and overall rains will remain below normal in both the states.

Expected precipitation accumulation till 27 August:

• Madhya Pradesh - 140mm
• Gujarat - 90mm
• Chhattisgarh - 50mm
• Maharashtra - 30mm

East and North East India:

Following the exact trend of the past week the depression is anticipated to move across Central India which will keep the monsoon axis south of its normal position hence rains will remain on a lesser side across the east and north east India.

In the last few days of the week, the axis of monsoon will start shifting towards North East India and rains may increase slightly but only scattered light to moderate rains will be observed in West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura and Manipur.

Rains will remain below normal and anomalies will turn further negative as the region remains drought-hit.

Expected precipitation accumulation till 27 August:

• North East India - 80mm
• West Bengal - 50mm
• Jharkhand - 50mm
• Odisha - 40mm
• Bihar - 40mm

Southern Peninsula

Rains in the peninsula have seen a decreasing trend during the past week as the week on week rainfall anomaly fell from +33 per cent to +25 per cent, the trend likely to continue early in the upcoming week.

The depression in central India will move to Rajasthan and fade away later in the week and gradually the monsoon axis will shift towards the foothills of Himalayas - technically occurring in the break phase of monsoon.

If pan-India rains take break, convective rains start in the southern peninsula specially over the interiors of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.

Rains will increase gradually in the states during 23 to 27 August. Moderate rains will return in Chennai and Bangalore over the next weekend and good rains will occur across Kerala, Tamil Nadu and interiors of Karnataka.

In absence of any monsoonal low pressure area or weakened off-shore trough , below normal rains will occur at the west coast, Goa, Telangana and North Andhra Pradesh during the upcoming week.

Expected precipitation accumulation till 27 August:

• Karnataka -- 70mm
• Tamil Nadu -- 60mm
• Kerala -- 60mm
• Goa -- 50mm
• Telangana -- 40mm
• Andhra Pradesh -- 20mm

Last few days of August are left and now there are hints of monsoon break in India which is a must considering the floods in Central parts of the country and disastrous rains over the western Himalayas, the pan India rainfall performance will see a sharp dip in the upcoming week but also likely to work as a relief for the flood-hit regions.

The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India.

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