World Cup 2023: Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan's chances of making the semi-finals

Afghanistan’s win over Sri Lanka has made things further interesting in the quest for teams to make the semi-finals of the ODI World Cup in India. India (12 points), South Africa (10 points), New Zealand (eight points) and Australia (six points) are in the four spots that will qualify for the next round of the competition.

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Given company in quest for the knockout round are Afghanistan (six points), Sri Lanka and Pakistan (four points). The latest two points at the World Cup were collected by Afghanistan following their 7-wicket win over Sri Lanka on Monday. Pakistan and Bangladesh meet on Tuesday in what is a crucial contest for their World Cup ambitions.

Here is how things stand for:

Sri Lanka: Sri Lanka are in the same situation as Pakistan and Netherlands with four points from six matches. Their situation is poor but are not completely out of contention. Mathematically they hold a chance of progressing with three straight wins.

Sri Lanka can muster a maximum of 10 points with their potential three straight wins. However, given that two of their next three matches are against India and New Zealand, the chances of their progression are slim.

Afghanistan: After their win over Sri Lanka, Afghanistan have six points from six matches. If they win all matches, they will get to 12 points. Only four other teams can mathematically reach 12 or more points and if Afghanistan were to continue this superlative run, they will have a chance of qualifying.

They could beat Netherlands in the three remaining matches but Australia and South Africa are going to be big challenges. Even 10 points could give them a fighting chance.

However, what could work against them is the net run rate. In case of tie on points, Afghanistan’s current net run rate of -0.718 will put themselves down.

Pakistan: Ahead of the Pakistan vs Bangladesh clash at the Eden Gardens in Kolkata, Babar Azam-led side have a chance of qualifying. They can’t top the round robin stage but can finish third or fourth with three straight wins and if other results go their way.

If at least one of New Zealand, South Africa and Australia lose their momentum and don’t go beyond 10 points, it could come down to run rates.

Even if Pakistan lose against Bangladesh on Tuesday, there is still a possibility of a tussle on eight points.