Ahead of Imran Khan's 'Long March' domestic turmoil intensifies in Pakistan after ECP disqualifies former PM

In a verdict which had been long awaited and was not totally unexpected, the five-member Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) disqualified PTI chief, Imran Khan as MNA on 21 October, in the Toshakhana reference case. The action came under Article 63(1)(p)of the 1973 Constitution, for making “false statements and incorrect declaration”, “intentionally and deliberately” thereby violating sections 137, 167 and 173 of the Elections Act, 2017.

The order further indicated that by selling the gifts obtained from the Toshakhana in the open market, Imran had committed the “offence of corrupt practices”, defined under sections 167 and 173 of the Elections Act, 2017, which would be punishable under Section 174 thereof.

Though there was some confusion about the duration of this ban, the apparent consensus is that this would relate to the NA-95 Mianwali seat, which Imran won in the 2018 elections and its duration would be ‘for the time being’, i.e. till the present National Assembly’s term.

The verdict led to spontaneous outbreaks of protest by PTI supporters outside the ECP office in Islamabad and several other cities in Pakistan. Though small in number, they resorted to burning of tyres on the streets, jamming of traffic and shouting slogans. One protest, in Islamabad, turned violent when a Khyber Pakhtunkhwa police constable, who was part of PTI MNA, Saleh Mohammed‘s security detail, fired on policemen deployed outside the ECP premises. Both he and the MNA were taken into custody.

In an address to the nation later in the evening where he disparaged the decision as a collusive vendetta by the mafia, former prime minister Imran Khan asked his supporters to call off their protests and prepare for his ‘Long March’, which he has now promised to announce on Friday, 28 October.

The Pakistan Democratic Movement(PDM) government has meanwhile, gone on the offensive, filing several First Information reports (FIRs) against PTI agitators indulging in violence and destruction of state property.

While considerable legal ambiguity attaches to the scope and impact of the ECP verdict, which has already been challenged by the PTI before the Islamabad High Court, it can clearly be seen as a ‘rap on the knuckles of the disgruntled PTI leader, who continued to agitate publicly against the military establishment after his ouster as prime minister in April 2022. More cases against him, in the foreign funding and alleged bank account misappropriation, could be in the pipeline.

The ECP had reserved its verdict on the Toshakhana case as far back as on September 2019. Its timing now, just before Imran’s threatened Long March, is significant. On the same day (21 October), Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa addressed a national security workshop at the National Defence University, Islamabad where he reiterated, before an audience which included journalists and politicians, that he would be retiring in a few weeks. He also held forth candidly on his relationships with former prime ministers, Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan.

President Arif Alvi has, meanwhile, continued to claim that certain back-channel contacts are continuing to defuse the political confrontation between the ruling PDM government and the PTI. While Imran Khan has not denied these talks, it has been apparent for a while that these are not making much headway. One unconfirmed report suggests President Alvi met PTI emissaries Asad Omar and Lt Gen Faiz Hameed secretly in Islamabad, where the establishment’s firm message given, was to eschew any major violence during the threatened Long March.

Though Gen Bajwa and the rest of the military establishment have not tired of suggesting that martial laws are a thing of the past in Pakistan, in case there is a major conflagration of violence and bloodshed during Imran’s Long March, if it is eventually undertaken, seasoned Pakistani political analysts are in no doubt that all bets about the implausibility of its imposition would be off the table.

Against this backdrop, the only silver lining has been the news about Pakistan having been taken off the UN Financial Action Task Force’s ‘grey list’ after four years. Much work in this regard was put in place, albeit selectively, by the army establishment but politicians of rival hue have rushed to claim the credit. Meanwhile, a beguiled audience of the common man, especially the middle classes heaves a sigh of relief in expectation of better days to come.

The writer is a former special secretary, Cabinet Secretariat. Views expressed are personal.

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