EU Commission set to recommend formal talks on Ukraine's membership

The European Commission, the executive branch of the European Union, is reportedly gearing up to recommend formal talks on Ukraine’s accession to the bloc.

The commission is planning to launch this potentially multi-year process as early as next month, according to Bloomberg’s report. However, European leaders are expected to emphasize the need for progress in crucial areas like combating corruption as initial steps in the accession process. For Ukraine, this development is seen as a positive boost and a counterbalance to concerns about diminishing Western support for its ongoing war efforts.

Once the European Commission formalizes its recommendation, EU lawmakers will need to approve the move. Subsequently, Ukraine would be required to align with European Union legislation on matters such as the rule of law and its economy. Ukraine asserts that it has already initiated reforms in its judiciary and media sector.

Bloomberg reports that the commission’s recommendation will be on the formal agenda for discussion in December. However, the positions of certain EU member states, including Hungary, remain uncertain and could pose challenges to the process.

In an upcoming summit in Spain next month, various EU leaders will discuss the enlargement of the bloc, including the potential inclusion of new members such as Western Balkan countries and Moldova, in addition to Ukraine.

During her 2023 State of the Union speech earlier this month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that new EU members would enhance the bloc’s geopolitical influence and capacity for action. She indicated that the EU, currently comprised of 27 members, could soon expand to over 30 members, emphasizing that the “next enlargement must also be a catalyst for progress.” Von der Leyen highlighted Ukraine’s significant strides since it was granted candidate status in July 2022.

However, Bloomberg’s sources cautioned that a failure to initiate talks on Ukraine’s EU integration would be politically inconvenient for the commission and might be seen as a lack of support for Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive efforts.

Another aspect to consider, as per an anonymous EU diplomat cited by Bloomberg, is the need to balance Ukraine’s aspiration to join the EU with the desires of Western Balkan countries seeking the same goal. The EU must demonstrate that it is not showing favouritism toward Kyiv during this process.