Fear of prospective Ukrainian counteroffensives pervading Russian pro-war info space: US think tank

New Delhi: Russian military bloggers have responded with speculative anxiety to reportedly leaked (and possibly altered) classified US military documents about the war in Ukraine, indicating continued fear over the prospect of future Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Russian information space, according to Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an American research group and think tank.

The New York Times had on Thursday reported that secret documents detailing US and NATO plans to help prepare Ukraine for a spring offensive against Russia have spilled onto social media platforms.

The documents were spread on Twitter and Telegram, and reportedly contain charts and details about weapons deliveries, battalion strengths and other sensitive information, the NYT said.

Information in the documents is at least five weeks old, with the most recent dated 1 March, the report added.

One of the documents summarised the training schedules of 12 Ukraine combat brigades, and said nine of them were being trained by US and NATO forces, and needed 250 tanks and more than 350 mechanised vehicles, the newspaper said.

The documents – at least one of which carried a “top secret” label – were circulated on pro-Russian government channels, it said.

Pentagon launches probe

The Pentagon said it was assessing the reported security breach.

“We are aware of the reports of social media posts, and the Department is reviewing the matter,” Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said.

According to ISW, Bellingcat analyst Aric Toler noted that the documents circulated online as early as 4 March, and it remains unclear why these documents reached mainstream Western media over a month later.

Bellingcat is a Netherlands-based investigative journalism group that specialises in fact-checking and open-source intelligence.

Clearly doctored versions of the documents which reduce reported Russian losses and inflate Ukrainian casualty numbers are additionally circulating on Russian Telegram channels, he added.

Refraining from speculating on the veracity of the reportedly leaked documents, ISW said the response of Russian milbloggers to the New York Times story highlights the fear of prospective Ukrainian counteroffensives pervading the Russian pro-war information space.

‘Misleading Russian military’

While several prominent Russian milbloggers immediately rejected the validity of the documents and suggested that they are fakes, they fixated on the possibility that the released documents are disinformation intended to confuse and mislead Russian military command, it added

According to ISW, one milblogger stated that the document leak could be part of a larger Ukrainian campaign to mislead Russian forces before a counteroffensive.

Another Russian milblogger noted that there is historical precedent for militaries disseminating false planning information prior to starting surprise offensives.

The milblogger urged their audience to be cautious in discussing where Ukrainian counteroffensives may take place due to document leak.

ISW noted that the New York Times story has exposed a significant point of neuralgia in the Russian information space, and responses to the documents suggest that Russian milbloggers may be increasingly reconsidering the validity of their own assessments and speculations regarding any potential Ukrainian counteroffensives and their ability to forecast Ukrainian operations.

With inputs from agencies

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