How INDIA bloc members will gain from Congress’ election losses in Hindi heartland

The misery for the Congress doesn’t end. After losing three of the four states that went to the polls on Sunday (3 December) – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh – the Congress’ allies in the INDIA alliance bloc have their knives out, putting the party in a precarious position.

After the drubbing in the polls – though the Congress managed to wrest power in Telangana – the alliance partners pointed fingers at the Grand Old Party, which is not a good sign for the alliance just months before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are to be held.

In fact, as the Congress stared at its losses in the polls, it called for a meet of the bloc on 6 December. The last time the alliance had met was in Mumbai in early September.

We take a closer look at how the Congress’ losses were received by the members of the INDIA bloc and how these results may prove to be more beneficial to the regional, smaller constituents of the alliance.

INDIA bloc on Congress’ loss

The Congress’ footprint in the political landscape has been reduced drastically following Sunday’s results. The Grand Old Party is now in power in just three states – thanks to Telangana – with just one state in the north, Himachal Pradesh.

The last time the Congress was in power in only one Hindi-speaking state was in 1998, when Sonia Gandhi took over as the party president. The party was then in power in three states – Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Mizoram.

This situation has not only perturbed the party and its leadership, but also the members of the INDIA alliance.

Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal-United (JDU) was one of the first to take a swipe at the Congress after the poll losses, saying it is clear that the main opposition party is unable to win on its own. JD(U) spokesperson K C Tyagi said the results of Assembly polls in the three states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan are a defeat of the Congress and a win for the BJP, noting that the opposition INDIA bloc was missing in the elections.

He was quoted as telling NDTV, “Now it is clear the Congress cannot put up a good fight against the BJP. The INDIA alliance was not in the race anywhere.”

Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) MP Manoj Jha added, “Leaders like our national president Lalu Prasad and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar have acknowledged that among all partners in the INDIA coalition, the Congress has the largest footprint. But now, the ball is in the Congress’s court. It ought to realise that Narendra Modi’s conceit cannot be fought with conceit.”

“I am sure the Congress will realise that the self-centred politics of the BJP can be beaten only through collectivism. In the days to come, much better coordination within INDIA may be there for all to see.”

Sanjay Raut of the Shiva Sena, a member of the INDIA alliance, was also of the opinion that the results would have been different, especially in Madhya Pradesh, had the Congress shared seats with allies. “The Congress should revisit its outlook towards allies,” he said adding that it was Madhya Pradesh Congress chief Kamal Nath who had opposed sharing seats with the Samajwadi Party.

National Conference leader and former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah took a more critical view of the results. He told reporters, “Judging the results of INDIA alliance in the state elections, if the situation is like this in the future, we cannot win.”

He also reacted on the Congress’ call for an INDIA bloc meet, “It is good that they remembered about it again after three months.”

Perhaps, the most stinging of reactions came from the Trinamool Congress. The party’s spokesperson Kunal Ghosh said the Congress’s losses were “more a Congress failure than a BJP success story”. He said in a post across social media platforms, “The TMC is the party which can provide leadership in the battle to defeat the BJP in the country.”

The Arvind Kejriwal-driven Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) also took shots at the Congress, saying it had more governments in the north of India than the Grand Old Party. Senior AAP leader Jasmine Shah posted: “After today’s results, @AamAadmiParty emerges as the largest Opposition party in north India with 2 state governments — Punjab and Delhi.”

However, the AAP clarified that the results in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh weren’t reflective of the national mood, pointing out that the Congress won Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan in 2018 but the BJP won the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Congress’ loss, allies’ victory

The Congress’ losses on Sunday put the party in a very difficult spot now. Its previous assertion that it was the only party capable of putting up a one-on-one fight against the BJP, now stands discredited.

This gives the regional parties such as the TMC, AAP and JD(U), which are major constituents of the INDIA bloc, more space to negotiate for seats for the 2024 election. As News18 put it, the INDIA front will not be willing to give the Congress the stature of a “big brother” anymore. So when the seat-sharing talks begin, the Congress may be forced to be meek. Notably, it will be interesting to see how the TMC, AAP and SP deal with the Congress when it comes to seat-sharing for the 2024 elections.

It won’t be a surprise if the INDIA bloc sees different equations when it comes to seat-sharing, as the allies will become more demanding.

The parties are already playing hard to get with the Congress, who has called for a meeting on 6 December. According to report, TMC’s Abhishek Banerjee may not attend the 6 December meeting. “We have been pleading with the Congress to convene a meeting of the INDIA alliance. They stalled all activities and we lost the momentum. Now they have called a meeting, what for?” a leader was quoted as telling the Indian Express.

Also, the Congress has lost credibility with voters – a feeling that the other parties will capitalise on. They could argue that their allying with the Congress could hurt them and that is why the Grand Old Party should be pushed to second position within the alliances.

The results also pave way for the rise of a new national leader. The allies could argue that the Congress leadership has lost its sway with the voters and hence, a face that has been able to put up a better fight against the BJP – read Mamata Banerjee or Arvind Kejriwal – should be the driving force of the alliance at large.

Furthermore, Congress’ desire to push Rahul Gandhi to be the biggest rival of Prime Minister Narendra Modi will also take a beating.

‘Won’t harm INDIA bloc’

But while many constituents of the INDIA alliance were sniping and taking aim at the Congress after their poor performance in the Hindi heartland, Sharad Pawar of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) had a differing view.

He told reporters, “I don’t think this will have any impact on the INDIA alliance. We will be meeting at Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge’s residence in Delhi. We will speak to those who know the ground reality. We will be able to comment on it after the meeting only.”

Communist Party of India-Marxist general secretary Sitaram Yechury said: “These election results underline the need for the secular forces to redouble their efforts in defence of people’s livelihood and the secular democratic character of the Indian republic.”

We will have to wait until 6 December to see how the equations have changed within the INDIA alliance, but one thing is certain. The Congress with its downsized influence is likely to lose more than it gains if it gives in to the demand of smaller parties in the alliance.

With inputs from agencies