India Preview, World Cup 2023: Yes, Rohit Sharma's men are favourites. Can they handle the pressure?

Are India favourites for the 2023 One-Day International World Cup?

Well, if you like to believe in your numbers, then this topic doesn’t even warrant a discussion.

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Since the last World Cup, India have lost only seven times in the 27 ODIs they’ve played at home. That’s a win percentage of above 70%.

Case closed. Stop the press. Just announce it for India already.

But…and here we come to the long-standing lament of the Indian cricket fan. Of course, India are good in bilateral cricket. You could even argue and say they’re unbeatable when they’re playing at home in bilateral ODIs.

Knockout misery

Now, the problem is…as any long-suffering fan of the Indian cricket team will tell you – it’s what they do in the big tournaments that provides the misery. Or more specifically the knockout stages of the big tournaments.

At its best, this Indian team is clinical. Surgical precision. They win big and carve the opposition up when things are clicking for them. They’ve scored 350+ eight times since the last World Cup (seven of those came in the subcontinent). As they showed at the Asia Cup final a few weeks ago, they can blow away any team with their spinners or with their pacers. From Rohit Sharma to Ishan Kishan to Kuldeep Yadav, everyone in that squad can win a match on their own.

And they do win plenty of matches. Indian cricket fans have become used to wins in the bilateral series. The only issue is that machine-like precision works in bilateral series.

Surya & Ishan are key

But what about when things don’t go according to plan? When you need to do something unorthodox. Need to surprise the opposition? In knockout matches, India have been asked these questions…and they’ve been found wanting.

This is why the presence of Surya Kumar Yadav and Ishan Kishan is good news. Both these players have an unpredictability, a fearlessness, a sense of looking to upend the script. They can play outrageous shots and change the nature of games. Most importantly, they can surprise the opposition with their unorthodox manoeuvres – and sometimes, in those tense knockout matches, those little things make the difference.

The other thing to remember is recency bias. Before India’s sparkling performance at the just-finished Asia Cup that heralded their status as favourites, plenty of questions were raised about India’s preparations for the World Cup. Even then, in the initial stages, there were murmurs after they were bowled out for 266 in their first match against Pakistan and then dropped three sitters against Nepal.

But then a Virat Kohli special helped India blank out Pakistan by a massive 228 runs in their Super Four match, followed up by a great Kuldeep Yadav performance which took care of Sri Lanka in a tense, low-scoring match. This was followed up by the ultimate hammering – Mohammed Siraj flatlining Sri Lanka with his 6/21 to give India their eighth Asia Cup title and cement the team’s reputation of runaway favourites for the World Cup.

It is important to remember that things weren’t as settled before this set of performances. These performances have certainly led to the questions becoming more muted but you can’t say they’ve completely banished. Firstly, Rohit Sharma’s captaincy. This is going to be his ultimate test. Does he have in him to handle the pressure? Then there’s India’s middle order. Hardik Pandya’s return is certainly a welcome relief but can they dig the team out of difficult situations when the pressure is on?

Bumrah must remain injury-free

The bowling certainly looks far better because of Jasprit Bumrah’s return. There’s no doubt that with him in the team, India will back themselves to bowl out any opposition and defend any score. The only prayer will be that Bumrah remains injury-free. When it comes to spin, Ravindra Jadeja and Ravichandran Ashwin remain a formidable team, supplemented by Kuldeep Yadav’s mystery. But Yadav is a confidence bowler and Indian fans can only hope that he doesn’t lose his confidence and along with it, his sparkling form as the tournament progresses.

The crux of it all is probably this: India are certainly very good. But their status as overwhelming favourites has been burnished by their sparkling Asia Cup performance. They still remain favourites, but perhaps not as overwhelmingly so.