India to lose its demographic edge by 2046, elderly to outnumber youth: UN

India will turn into a “rapidly ageing society,” a new report by UN said, stating that by 2046, the share of elderly in India’s population will be higher than the proportion of children aged between 0-14 years.

“Four years before 2050, the population size of the elderly in India will be higher than the population size of children aged 0–14 years. By that time, the population share of 15–59 years will also see a dip. Undoubtedly, the relatively young India today will turn into a rapidly ageing society in the coming decades,” read the India Ageing Report 2023 released by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).

There are 149 million people aged 60 years and above in 2022 (as on 1 July), comprising around 10.5 per cent of the country’s population. By 2050, the share of
older people will double to 20.8 per cent, with the absolute number at 347 million.

“By 2050, one in every five individuals will be an elderly in India,” the report said.

“Most of the states in the southern region and select northern states such as Himachal Pradesh and Punjab reported a higher share of the elderly population than the national average in 2021, a gap that is expected to widen by 2036,” it said.

Population statistics usually refer to the population aged 60 or 65 and above as ‘old’ or ‘elderly’.

The report further said states reporting higher fertility rates and lagging in demographic transition, such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, are expected to see an increase in the share of the elderly population between 2021 and 2036, the level will remain lower than the Indian average.

According to 2021 population estimates, there are 39 older people per 100 children in India.

Life expectancy on Indian population

The report further said women will live longer than men, due to which the number of older women will be more than older men. A large number of them will be rural women.

The global population has been increasing even as people are living longer, the report said, adding that increasing life expectancy and declining fertility have had an impact on all countries of the world, due to which both the share and number of older people will increase worldwide in the coming years.

Click here to read the entire report.

In 1991, there were 930 elderly women per 1,000 men, according to the report. The ratio started to change after this and is expected to continue. It is estimated that there will be 951 men for 1,078 women.

As per the report, a man aged 60 years in India can live another 18.3 years, while women can live 19 years. However, it depends on the different life expectancy of the states.