ISIS, Israel or the US? Who is behind the twin blasts in Iran that killed 95?

As people mourn their dead, and the injured are cared for, the guessing game of who was behind the blasts gain momentum. On Wednesday (3 January), at least 95 people were killed when back-to-back explosions occurred near the burial site of slain military commander Qasem Soleimani.

In the aftermath of the blasts, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed the “terrorist attack” would be met with a “harsh response”. “The evil and criminal enemies of the Iranian nation once again created a disaster and martyred a large number of dear people in Kerman,” Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in a statement. “This disaster will have a harsh response, God willing.”

Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi also issued a statement, saying, “Undoubtedly, the perpetrators … of this cowardly act will soon be identified and punished for their heinous act by the capable security and law enforcement forces. The enemies of the nation should know that such actions can never disrupt the solid determination of the Iranian nation.”

As Iran vows action, we try to decipher who exactly is responsible for the blast and how this incident risks igniting a regional war.

Twin blasts in Kerman

On Wednesday, twin blasts took place in the Iranian city of Kerman at a ceremony to commemorate the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s al-Quds force, who was killed in a US air strike four years ago.

Iranian media reported that while the first explosion was 2,300 feet (700 metres) from Soleimani’s grave, and the second was 0.6 miles (1 kilometre) away as pilgrims visited the site. Iran’s interior minister Ahmad Vahidi was later quoted as telling the media that the first explosion happened at 3 pm local time while the second, more deadly blast, took place 20 minutes later, when other pilgrims came to help the injured.

Iranian state media showed large crowds running in the area after the explosion. Footage also showed bloodied bodies being transported from the scene, and ambulances leaving the site through large crowds.

The blasts, killing 95 and injuring over 200 others, is the deadliest to strike Iran since its 1979 Islamic Revolution.

A woman who was injured in the blast was later quoted as saying, “I heard a very loud sound and then felt pain in my back … then I could not feel my legs.”

Tasnim media has reported that two briefcases loaded with explosives were placed at the entrance of the cemetery and were then detonated remotely.

While no one has claimed responsibility for the attack, Iran’s authorities have dubbed it as a terrorist attack, with some even pointing the finger at Israel, and the United States.

Blame game over the blasts

No single group or entity has claimed responsibility for the blasts. However, there’s no shortage of possibilities. While many analysts believe it could be one of the many resistance groups that are present in Iran, some believe it could be an external force, such as Israel or the United States.

Some have even pointed the finger at Sunni jihadist groups like Islamic State (IS), who have carried out attacks on civilians and security forces in the country in recent years.

However, on Thursday, Iran blamed the Israel and US for the blasts, with Iranian president’s political deputy, Mohammad Jamshidi, writing on X: “Washington says USA and Israel had no role in terrorist attack in Kerman, Iran. Really? A fox smells its own lair first.

“Make no mistake. The responsibility for this crime lies with the US and Zionist regimes (Israel) and terrorism is just a tool,” he added.

The US has categorically denied any involvement in the blast. In fact, a senior Biden administration official indicated that the blast had the hallmarks of a terrorist attack. “I think it’s just based on the MO (modus operandi) it does look like a terrorist attack, the type of thing we’ve seen ISIS do in the past. And as far as we’re aware, that’s kind of I think our going assumption at the moment,” the official said.

US State Department spokesperson Matt Miller said at a press briefing that the US does not “have any independent information” about the explosions, and that the State Department has “no reason to believe that Israel was involved.”

Separately, White House national security spokesman John Kirby also said the US had seen no indication that Israel was behind the blasts.

Other analysts also believe that the blasts didn’t appear to be the work of Israel. One analysis said that the blasts causing mass casualty didn’t fit with Israel’s modus operandi. A Sky News report further added that judging by the scale of explosions, it did not appear to be beyond the skill sets of many groups with operations inside the country.

Other experts have also said that Iran has a long history of battling various jihadist and other militant groups and this could be the handiwork of any of them.

In fact, the ISIS has conducted large-scale attacks in the past that killed civilians in Shiite-majority Iran. For instance, it was the ISIS that was responsible for the attack at the Shahcheragh Shrine in the city of Shiraz in October 2022. Fifteen people had died when ISIS members had opened fire at the worshippers entering the shrine for prayers.

A tense moment for the region

However, experts have stated that while there’s no confirmation on who’s behind the blasts, it will undoubtedly create greater instability across the region at what is already an extremely dangerous time.

The timing of the blast, according to many, is important to note. It comes just a day after senior Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri was killed in Beirut. While Israel didn’t confirm or deny their involvement in the incident, Hamas and Hezbollah blamed Israel and vowed revenge.

In fact, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah issued a stern warning against Israel on Wednesday, saying, ‘“If the enemy thinks of waging a war on Lebanon, we will fight without restraint, without rules, without limits and without restrictions.

“We are not afraid of war,” Nasrallah said, but did not issue a concrete threat. “For now,” he said, “we are fighting on the frontline following meticulous calculations.”

Analysts observe that 2024 is now more tense for the region and it is important that calm thinking prevails among the leadership in the region.

With inputs from agencies