Nawaz Sharif is back home: How his return will change Pakistan's politics

Former Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif is back home, four years after his self-imposed exile in London. The 73-year-old veteran politician will be shortly addressing a massive rally in his eastern hometown of Lahore. His supporters have decorated the city with his photos and flags of his party Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), or PML-N.

The return of Pakistan’s thrice-elected former premier has come when the South Asian country is reeling from harsh economic and political crises.

Why did Nawaz Sharif leave? What does his return mean for Pakistan? Let’s take a closer look.

Nawaz Sharif’s conviction

Sharif never completed his multiple tenures as Pakistan’s PM. In 1993, he was sacked on corruption charges. He returned to the prime ministerial post in 1997, only to be removed two years later after a fallout with Pakistan’s powerful military.

His third stint came to an end in 2017 when Pakistan’s Supreme Court barred him from politics for life over graft charges related to the Panama Papers scandal.

Sharif left for London for medical treatment in 2019 while serving a 14-year prison sentence for corruption, and never set foot in Pakistan until now.

Earlier this week, the High Court in Islamabad granted Sharif protective bail until 24 October, preventing authorities from arresting him when he landed in the country.

What the ‘Lion of Punjab’ said before his return

According to Associated Press (AP), Sharif, who is called the ‘Lion of Punjab’ by his fans, told reporters before leaving for Islamabad from Dubai, “Today I am going to Pakistan after four years and I am feeling very happy with the grace of Allah”.

He also said that he wished the country was in a better state than it was in 2017. Describing the situation as “worrisome”, Sharif said there was still hope and “we should not let it slip from our hands as we are capable of fixing it because we spoilt it ourselves”, reported Pakistani newspaper Dawn.

As per Anadolu Agency, the PML-N supremo last month accused former Pakistan army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa, ISI spy chief Faiz Hameed, former chief justice Saqib Nisar, and another retired Supreme Court judge for his 2017 ouster from power. He also called for action against them.

Why Nawaz Sharif’s return matters

According to The Diplomat, Nawaz Sharif’s comeback “symbolises the possibility of political normalcy” returning to Pakistan.

The country is in political turmoil since Sharif’s main rival, Imran Khan, was ousted from the Pakistan PM post in a no-confidence vote in April 2022. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chief is currently in jail after being convicted and sentenced to three years imprisonment in a graft case.

Despite this, Khan seems to enjoy huge support from the public and is regarded as Pakistan’s most popular politician currently. Sharif’s main challenge will be to wrest this support from Khan in his favour.

Aamer Ahmed Khan, a Karachi-based political analyst, told Anadolu Agency that Sharif has “very little” to offer voters at this point. “Nawaz Sharif seems to be unaware of the extent to which on-ground dynamics have changed during his four-year absence”.

“He clearly believes that calling for accountability of a couple of generals and judges whom he holds responsible for Pakistan’s economic decline over the past five years will be enough,” the political analyst added referring to the ex-PM’s last month’s remarks.

Sharif, who reportedly played a key role in Khan’s ouster and installation of his younger brother Shehbaz Sharif as the Pakistan PM, has his work cut out.

“For Sharif, after the immediate euphoria of his return wears off, he will face an uphill battle. The honeymoon won’t last long,” Michael Kugelman, South Asia Institute Director at The Wilson Center, told Reuters.

There are also speculations that Sharif’s return was possible because of the blessings of “the establishment”, a term used to refer to Pakistan’s powerful military. However, the military maintains it does not interfere in politics.

“Sharif and his party appear to be back in the good graces of the military, and that critical backing is the trump card that the PML-N will likely play in its quest to return to power in an electoral environment that otherwise doesn’t favour it,” Kugelman was quoted as saying by Deutsche Welle (DW).

Pakistan’s current caretaker government had previously rejected any agreement with Sharif and his party.

According to Hassan Askari, a Lahore-based political analyst, Pakistan’s establishment has “limited options” that can benefit Sharif. “It is like being between a hard and a rock place: Imran Khan on one side and Nawaz Sharif and company on the other. Since Khan stands knocked out because of his confrontation with the establishment, Sharif has the advantage,” Askari told Anadolu Agency.

The former premier’s other worry is Pakistan’s biting economic plight, with the nuclear-armed nation recording over 31 per cent year-on-year inflation in September. The country’s economic growth is estimated to be below 2 per cent this financial year.

Speaking to Reuters, author and analyst Ayesha Siddiqa said Sharif is likely to start his campaign with a focus on the economy. “He needs a far more robust team to run the economy,” she said, but added: “His main task is to wipe out Imran Khan’s memory from people’s minds.”

When Sharif was ousted as PM in 2017, Pakistan’s GDP growth rate was 5.8 per cent and inflation was about just 4 per cent, noted Reuters.

“Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan signals his hopes for a fourth term as prime minister. He is the leader of his party and had run things from London even as his brother was prime minister from April 2022 to August 2023,” Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, told DW.

Afzal said the elder Sharif is “key to reviving his party’s political fortunes”.

It must be noted that Sharif is currently barred from participating in elections. However, his daughter and politician, Maryam Nawaz, has said he will seek to overturn his conviction sentence in the court and lead the party in the general elections slated in January 2024.