Rewind 2023: Conflicts that shaped global geopolitics

The year 2023 was marred by several conflicts. These included the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, the civil war in Myanmar and the ongoing Russian offensive in Ukraine

Let us have a look at some of these conflicts.

Russia-Ukraine War

The Russia-Ukraine War’s second year did not turn out as either side had hoped, leaving a trail of unhappiness and disappointment that appears certain to continue into a third year.

About twenty-two months after Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the order for his soldiers to start a “special operation” to “denazify” Ukraine, the situation is still unstable.

The turbulent events of this year forced Russia to revert to more dubious tactics as it struggled to find friends, ammunition, and troops to sustain the war effort; in the meantime, Ukraine was unable to achieve the advances that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had promised.

These are some of the most significant events of the year that ensured the invasion will always rank among Russia’s biggest humiliations and cast doubt on Ukraine’s own initiatives.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, a mercenary warlord, clashed with Russia’s military leadership, which had undergone several changes throughout the conflict. The charismatic Prigozhin gained control due to the leadership revolving door, which resulted in a very contentious policy that allowed him to hire people straight out of Russian jails to bolster his Wagner Group.

Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Defence Minister, who assumed leadership of the Russian army in January, denied Prigozhin access to jails and vital weapons. In June, Prigozhin claimed that Shoigu had attacked the Wagner forces fatally; however, Russian officials refuted this.

Remaining true to his mission, Prigozhin launched a “march of justice,” which observers soon recognised as the biggest threat to Putin’s power in his two-decade rule. According to reports, Prigozhin had expected assistance from a number of military officers and regiments, but none of them showed up.

Rather, Putin angrily pledged to put an end to the uprising and force Prigozhin to “answer for it.” Prigozhin maintained that he was solely at odds with the Ministry of Defence and that he had no beef with Putin, who was by far his biggest supporter.

When Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, intervened and mediated Prigozhin’s surrender and exile, returning the Wagner forces home, Prigozhin finally gave up on the endeavour. Prigozhin took Lukashenko’s warning that he would pay a price for his actions—the warlord hired to carry out mercenary operations.

There was a reported military purge that followed, but Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, press secretary for the Pentagon, stated that nothing was found that should be concerning.

Sadly for Prigozhin, the narrative did not finish there. Instead, two months later, his private jet exploded, bringing an end to the life of one of the most well-known participants in the fight outside of the leaders of each nation.

Prigozhin’s banishment seems slack at best, as the leader visited Russia at least twice, apparently even in the month before he fled the nation. On his Telegram channel, he continued his call for help, stating that the troops “need your support today more than ever.”

Ten people were killed when the mercenary warlord’s plane burst on August 23, while it was travelling from Moscow to Saint Petersburg. Later on, the Kremlin verified that Prigozhin, Wagner’s chief of logistics, and his second-in-command also perished.

The Pentagon came to the conclusion that the explosion was deliberate, and Zelenskyy and the White House swiftly laid the blame on Putin, declaring it was “very clear” the Russian president was responsible for the killing. It took many days for the Kremlin to officially announce Prigozhin’s passing.

Putin was in Moscow at the time of the explosion delivering a state medal to the crew of an Alyosha T-80 tank, which had reportedly destroyed an armoured convoy in Ukraine, according to Russian news agency TASS. Some made the analogy that Putin was the “Godfather” figure Michael Corleone, who watched his son’s baptism while hitmen murdered his enemies.

Even though Putin seemed to be having a terrible time with the Wagner drama, it wasn’t the biggest issue that plagued him throughout the year. Instead, he was more concerned with figuring out how to continue the war effort without using the national draft, which would be extremely unpopular with the Russian people.

The Russian military has likewise had trouble keeping up with armaments after depleting its stock in the first year. According to reports from the first year, Russia increased its strike capability by using Iranian drones.

Russian military used up more munitions in the second year than the first, which prompted Moscow to make more agreements with anti-Western countries, such as North Korea’s reclusive monarchy.

Pyongyang sent 1,000 equipment containers to Russia in October, and the White House disclosed that Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea, intended to acquire advanced Russian military technology. Kim Jong Un travelled in a large armoured train to meet with Putin in person.

Israel–Hamas war

Since October 7, 2023, Israel and Palestinian terrorist organisations led by Hamas have been engaged in armed confrontation, with most of the fighting occurring in and around the Gaza Strip. Clashes have also occurred in the West Bank and along the Israel-Lebanon border. That day saw the beginning of the biggest military build-up in the area since the Yom Kippur War in 1973 when terrorist organisations launched an unexpected onslaught on southern Israel from the Gaza Strip.

Following the attack by Hamas terrorists, the Israeli military launched a massive aerial bombardment campaign against Gazan sites in retaliation. This was followed by a massive ground invasion of Gaza. As a component of the larger Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the ongoing hostilities between Gaza and Israel represent the sixth war in this conflict. Approximately 1.9 million Palestinians, almost 85% of the population of Gaza and around 500,000 Israelis have been internally displaced.

The conflict started when Palestinian terrorist organisations led by Hamas launched a flurry of rockets into Israel. Meanwhile, about 3,000 militants crossed the Gaza–Israel border and attacked Israeli neighbourhoods, killing 695 Israeli civilians, 373 troops, and 71 foreigners for a total of 1,139 deaths. An undetermined number of fatalities from friendly fire are included in the total.

As a response to Israel’s ongoing occupation of Palestinian territories, the blockade of the Gaza Strip, the growth of illegal Israeli settlements, the escalation of Israeli settler violence, and recent escalation, Hamas claimed that its attack, which included sexual violence, the killing of children, and the burning of houses and bodies, was carried out. About 240 Israeli soldiers, residents, and foreigners were transported as hostages or captives to the Gaza Strip with the declared intention of forcing Israel to release Palestinian prisoners.

Israel landed more than 6,000 bombs on sites in Gaza during the first six days, resulting in extensive damage and thousands of civilian casualties. Along with imposing a complete blockade, Israel was accused of forcing Gazans to drink tainted, salted water and utilising famine as a weapon.After that, Israel declared it would destroy Hamas and take control of Gaza before launching a massive ground invasion.

More than 20,000 Palestinians had been slaughtered as of December 22, 2023, including over 8,000 children, 6,200 women, and 61 journalists. Thousands more dead are thought to have been buried beneath the debris. Both Israel and Hamas have been charged with war crimes as a result of the widespread killings of civilians.

Due to Israel’s declared embargo of the region, which includes cutting off gasoline, water, and electricity, the war has resulted in a dire humanitarian situation in Gaza. There is a severe scarcity of food, fuel, drinking water, medical supplies, and most hospitals are closed. The health system is in a state of partial collapse.

Thousands of Palestinians have been imprisoned or vanished in Israel and the occupied Palestinian territory as a result of Israel’s mass incarceration policies.

Conflict in West Africa

The United Nations announced on Tuesday that a record 49.5 million people in West and Central Africa are predicted to be hungry in 2019 as a result of violence, climate change, and high food costs.

The amount is 4% more than it was in 2023. In coastal countries, the World Food Programme (WFP) and other humanitarian agencies have produced a new regional food security analysis that projects 6.2 million people to experience acute hunger in 2024—a 16% increase from current year.

According to the data, over two thirds of households in West and Central Africa are unable to afford nutritious foods.

It stated that the cost of a daily, nutrient-dense diet in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, three nations in the central Sahel, is eleven0% more than the region’s minimum wage.

According to U.N. estimates, the Islamist insurgency affecting the Sahel countries has driven about four million people from their homes and fields. Almost seven million people have been displaced by the several ongoing conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

People fleeing the Sahel catastrophe are now seeking safety in neighbouring coastal nations like Ghana, Togo, and Ivory Coast, which is experiencing its worst economic crisis in a generation.

Myanmar Civil War

The military junta in Myanmar is fighting conflicts on several fronts throughout the country of Southeast Asia, posing the greatest danger to its hold on power nearly three years after its brutal takeover.

Experts say the deeply unpopular junta is losing strategically important border towns, key military positions, and vital trade routes at a scale not seen in decades. In recent weeks, powerful armed ethnic militias have teamed up with resistance forces to mount major new offensives with unprecedented coordination.

An alliance of three potent ethnic rebel forces in the northeast of the country launched Operation 1027 in late October, and it has since sparked a national campaign to seize control of towns and regions in Myanmar’s north, west, and southeast.

Since October 27, the conflict has resulted in nearly 200 civilian deaths and 335,000 fresh displacements, according to the UN.

For decades, a civil war has raged in Myanmar between the country’s numerous ethnic armies and successive military governments. However, the nation’s opposition to army chief Min Aung Hlaing’s February 2021 coup, which toppled Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically elected government, is what led to the most recent uptick in hostilities.

In Myanmar’s rural and urban centres, people took up guns to defend their towns and communities when the military used force against peaceful protestors following the coup, and documented atrocities against civilians further incited anger.

Ever since, daily skirmishes have broken out between the military and resistance organisations supporting the National Unity Government in exile, which opposed the junta. Up to now, hundreds of civilians, including children, have died as a result of Junta airstrikes and ground assaults on targets that the Myanmar military designates as “terrorists,” and almost two million people have been displaced.

According to those on the ground, their ultimate goal is to overthrow the junta and install a federal democracy where all citizens of Myanmar will enjoy full rights and representation.

It will be difficult to overthrow an organisation as deeply ingrained as the military, which has controlled via violence and terror for five years, and the military’s reluctance to give up could cause Myanmar’s conflict to worsen.

Though it hasn’t yet reached large cities like Mandalay, Naypyidaw, or Yangon, the most recent conflict escalation after October 27 is a turning point in that resistance. The UN office for humanitarian affairs (OCHA) reports that since the coup, armed conflicts have reached their largest and most widespread levels to date.

South China Sea Dispute

China has been applying growing pressure on the Philippines in the South China Sea, where there are disputes, during the last few months. China has specifically made a concerted effort to impede the small Philippine garrison stationed at Second Thomas Shoal.

Living on a landing craft from World War II that is rotting, the Philippine marines depend on regular resupplies of food and water from the main Philippine islands. Chinese fishing boats and Coast Guard (CCG) vessels have been attempting, effectively, to lay siege to the little outpost by obstructing Philippine ships from carrying supplies. In the most recent events, the Chinese used water cannons to cripple one Philippine supply vessel and took part in risky maneuvers that led to a collision between a Chinese and a Philippine vessel.

These Chinese initiatives show a sophisticated use of hybrid warfare and “grey zone” tactics. Beijing attempts to muddy the lines between the nature of its intervention and avoiding the perception of employing armed force by depending on CCG and supposedly civilian craft (albeit the “fishing boats” are most likely a part of China’s sizable maritime militia force).