Ukraine's counteroffensive: How Kakhovka dam breach has wreaked havoc on Russian defensive positions

The geology and topography of the Kherson frontline sector in southern Ukraine have substantially changed as a result of the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam.

According to near-infrared (NIR) imagery taken on June 7, the flooding is severely undermining Russian defensive positions that had been set up on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro river, particularly Russian first-line positions at Hola Prystan and Oleshky.

According to a number of reports, Oleshky, Hola Prystan, Kozacha Laheri, and Dnipryany are all but completely under water, with water levels in some places reaching the height of one-story structures.

According to the Ukrainian headquarters set up to address the effects of the dam’s demolition, as of June 7th, 29 communities were partially or completely under water, with 19 of those settlements being situated on Ukrainian-controlled territory and 10 on Russian-occupied territory.

Video footage from Nova Kakhovka, according to Russian authorities, shows that the water level has plummeted by 30 centimetres. Additionally, according to Russian reports, water levels in some locations fell by three to four metres from a peak of ten metres. According to reports, as of June 7, the water levels in neighbouring Mykolaiv City had risen by 70 cm. In Kherson Oblast, flooding is projected to get worse during the next 72 hours and alter the landscape even more.

Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River are being impacted by the collapse of the KHPP dam. Numerous Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military planned to use to ward off Ukrainian attacks have been damaged by flooding. The Russian military’s key concentration centres in Oleshky and Hola Prystan have probably been forced to evacuate their soldiers and military hardware due to rapid flooding.

Previously, Kherson City and neighbouring communities on the west (right bank) of Kherson had been shelled by Russian soldiers from these positions. According to Nataliya Humenyuk, spokeswoman for the Ukrainian Southern Operational Command, Russian forces relocated their personnel and military hardware five to 15 kilometres away from the flood zone, putting them outside the artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River that they had been attacking. Russian minefields around the coast were also devastated by the flood, and footage from the time showed mines exploding in the floodwater.

Vladimir Saldo, the head of the occupation in Kherson Oblast, asserted that the demolition of the KHPP is advantageous to the Russian defences since it will make it more difficult for Ukrainian forces to cross the river. Saldo’s evaluation of the situation ignores the destruction of Russia’s first constructed line of defences. It’s also unclear how much Russian heavy equipment was lost in the first day of floods.

Out of concern that Ukrainian forces would land on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast, Ukrainian officials continued to accuse Russian forces of destroying the KHPP dam. Andriy Yusov, a representative of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), claimed that given the dam’s structural and engineering characteristics, only Russian forces could have exploded it. He also said that Russians are “very happy that the islands, on which (Ukrainian forces) were allegedly based, were flooded.”

According to Humenyuk, Russian forces destroyed the dam without thinking about the repercussions because they were too worried about a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

The KHPP’s interior structures were allegedly destroyed by Russian forces in order to harm the dam and obstruct the advance of Ukrainian forces, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.

The day before the KHPP dam was destroyed, as well as on countless other occasions in the past, Russian military bloggers expressed worry over alleged Ukrainian river crossings onto the east bank. As of June 5, according to a Kremlin-affiliated military blogger, there were ongoing clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces on the disputed islands close to Kherson City and in the Dachi area on the east bank of the Dnipro River (11 km southwest of Kherson City).

According to the military blogger, as of June 5, there were more Ukrainian speedboats in the Dnipro Delta. Another military blogger conjectured that by taking the KHPP dam, Ukrainian forces were trying to build a bridgehead.

According to a report by ISW, the fear of such a crossing and the conviction that it was either taking place or was impending was prevalent in the thoughts of Russians who were closely following the conflict just before the dam was demolished, as evidenced by the clear worry in the Russian military information arena.

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