US population projected to begin declining by 2100: Census Bureau

The latest projection from the Census Bureau projected that the US population will peak at nearly 370 million in 2080 before gradually declining to approximately 366 million by 2100. This represents a modest 9.7% increase from the 2022 population.

The Census Bureau’s projections outline potential population scenarios for the nation through the end of the century. If immigration continues to rise each year, the population could potentially reach as high as 435 million by 2100, it said.

The 2023 National Population Projections represent an update to the previous projections from 2017, incorporating the impacts of COVID-19 and using the Vintage 2022 National Population Estimates as a base while extending projections to 2100. This marks the first time since 2000 that the Census Bureau’s projections have reached so far into the future.

Sandra Johnson, a demographer at the Census Bureau, emphasized the importance of understanding population dynamics in a changing world. She noted that the U.S. has undergone significant shifts in population components over the past five years, with some, like COVID-19-related increases in mortality, expected to be short-term, while others, such as persistent declines in fertility, are likely to continue.

The incorporation of additional data on births, deaths, and international migration has led to a slower rate of population growth through 2060 compared to previous projections.

These projections offer insights into potential population changes based on assumptions about future births, deaths, and international migration. The 2023 projections include a main series, considered the most likely outcome, along with three alternative immigration scenarios that depict how the population could change under high, low, and zero immigration assumptions.