Why the Opposition’s no-confidence motion in Lok Sabha is bound to fail

The clash between the government and the united Opposition is intensifying in Parliament. The Congress has filed a no-trust motion against the Narendra Modi-led government in Lok Sabha amid the impasse over the Manipur issue.

K Chandrashekar Rao’s Bharat Rashtra Samithi has also moved a no-confidence motion. However, is not part of the Opposition’s decision but a separate one on the same issue. “We have decided to do this because we want a discussion on Manipur. Doesn’t matter if we are part of ‘INDIA’, we too are Opposition we will move such motions for the issue that we feel for,” BRS leader Nageshwar Rao said.

INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance), the newly minted coalition, has been contemplating a no-confidence motion against the Narendra Modi-led government. They are hoping that this would push the prime minister to make an appearance in Parliament and allow them to corner him over the issue of the ongoing Manipur crisis.

The Opposition’s motion has been permitted by Lok Sabha speaker Om Birla. “I will hold discussions with leaders from all parties and inform you of the suitable time for the discussion on this motion,” he said.

But the Opposition is unlikely to succeed. Here’s why.

What is a no-confidence motion?

A government can function only if it has majority support in Lok Sabha. A no-confidence motion can be moved by any member of the House. However, it can be moved only in the Lok Sabha and not the Rajya Sabha.

If any member of the House feels that the government does not have the majority, they can move a no-confidence motion. If accepted, the party in power has to prove its majority in the House.

Rule 198 of the Rules of Procedure and Conduct of Lok Sabha specifies the procedure for moving a no-confidence motion. The member has to give a written notice of the motion before 10 am which will be read out by the speaker in the House.

A minimum of 50 members have to support the motion and the speaker will accordingly announce the date for discussion for the motion. The allotted date has to be within 10 days from the day the motion is accepted. If not, the motion fails and the member who moved the motion has to be informed about it.

If the government is not able to prove its majority in the House, it has to resign.

Does the Opposition have the numbers?

INDIA is an alliance of 26 Opposition parties and they have moved a no-confidence motion against the government. It has reportedly drawn up a draft of the notice and is in the process of getting the necessary 50 signatures of MPs.

“…we won’t have any other alternative but to resort to a no-confidence motion because the government is not accepting the demand of the Opposition parties that on the issue of Manipur at least Prime Minister should make a strong statement in the parliament because he is our leader in the Parliament in addition to the Prime Minister of India,” Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury said.

However, the proposed no-confidence motion by opposition parties is bound to fail the numbers test. The numbers are stacked in favour of the BJP, as the Opposition INDIA alliance has 144 members in the 543-member Lok Sabha. The ruling National Democratic Alliance currently has a strength of 331.

Why is the Opposition moving the no-trust motion?

Opposition parties argue that they will win the battle of perception by challenging the government on the Manipur issue during the debate. According to them, it is also a strategy to make the prime minister speak in Parliament on the Manipur issue, as the government has been insisting that only the Union home minister will reply to a debate on the situation in the Northeastern state.

“In the game of perception, it is a good idea to target the government on the Manipur issue (through the no-confidence motion),” a leader from the Opposition group told PTI.

However, Congress MP K Suresh said they have enough numbers to move a no-confidence motion against the government.

“INDIA partners unanimously decide to move a no-confidence motion against the NDA government. The government, home minister and defence minister are saying that we’re ready for the discussion in the House, but they are not making the atmosphere in the House for discussion. PM is not coming to the House and sitting every day in his chamber, meeting media and having BJP parliamentary party meetings…We have enough numbers to move a no-confidence motion against the government,” news agency ANI quoted Suresh as saying.

Sources add that the attention of the entire country will focus on the “no confidence motion” on Manipur and this is likely to help the Opposition. However, they said the Opposition may not get that much time during the debate in Lok Sabha, as time is allocated according to the strength of parties in the House.

After a notice of no-confidence is moved, it has to be listed in the business of the day and as many as 50 MPs in Lok Sabha have to support it for it to be taken up for discussion in the House. It is, however, up to the Speaker when to take up that notice in the House.

What is the BJP saying?

The Opposition’s plan was criticised by BJP leaders and Union ministers on Tuesday, who took potshots at the INDIA alliance.

After the no-trust motion was filed, Union minister of state for parliamentary affairs Arjun Ram Meghwal said these are just excuses as the government has already said it is ready for a discussion. “Let the no-confidence motion come, government is ready for every situation. We do want a discussion on Manipur… Before the commencement of the session, they wanted a discussion. When we agreed, they brought up the issue of Rules. When we reached an agreement on Rules, they brought in the new issue that the PM come and initiate discussion. I think these are all excuses…,” Meghwal said.

On Tuesday, PM Narendra Modi called the Opposition “directionless” at the BJP parliamentary meeting on Tuesday. “Indian National Congress. East India Company. Indian Mujahideen. Popular Front of India… these are also INDIA. Just using the name INDIA does not mean anything,” senior leader Ravi Shankar Prasad quoted the PM as saying.

Ministers and senior BJP leaders spoke in the same voice. “In a bid to get rid of its hounding past, the opposition alliance has changed its nomenclature. But merely changing the name to I.N.D.I.A. will not erase their past deeds from public memory. The people of our country are wise enough to see through this propaganda and will treat this old product with a new label with the same disapproval,” wrote Home Minister Amit Shah on Twitter.

“Irony that those who seek intervention from abroad now believe that I.N.D.I.A can serve as a cover. Not to worry; the people will see through it,” tweeted External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar.

Irony that those who seek intervention from abroad now believe that I.N.D.I.A can serve as a cover.

Not to worry; the people will see through it.

— Dr. S. Jaishankar (@DrSJaishankar) July 25, 2023

Senior leader Kiren Rijiju also reiterated what the PM had said earlier in the day. “Mr Rahul Gandhi works against the interests of the country but fooling the people by misusing INDIA just like Popular Front of INDIA, INDIAN Mujahideen, East INDIA Company....,” he said.

Clearly, the BJP remains unperturbed. Modi has told his MPs not to be distracted by the Opposition protest. He said that their job is to oppose, urging the party to focus on governance, according to a report in The Indian Express.

For the BJP, it is business as usual today. The PM performed the inaugural pooja at the revamped IPTO complex at Delhi’s Pragati Maidan, which will host G20 leaders in September.

Amit Shah will visit Bhopal to chair a meeting of the party related to the coming Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh.

With inputs from agencies