Will PM Modi meet Xi Jinping? How India-China ties are a big focus at BRICS Summit

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has departed for Johannesburg in South Africa for the crucial 15th BRICS summit where he will share the room with leaders from China, Brazil, South Africa and Russia (albeit virtually).

Before flying off to the Johannesburg on the invitation of South African president Cyril Ramaphosa – this is the first in-person summit of BRICS since 2019 – the prime minister wrote on X, “Leaving for South Africa to take part in the BRICS Summit being held in Johannesburg. I will also take part in the BRICS-Africa Outreach and BRICS Plus Dialogue events. The Summit will give the platform to discuss issues of concern for the Global South and other areas of development.”

As Modi makes his way to the South African capital for the next three days, he’s there until 24 August, the question is will he sit down with China’s Xi Jinping for a bilateral in an effort to resolve the three-year-old stand-off at the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

Here’s what we know of the situation.

A meeting on the sidelines

There has been a buzz about talks between the two leaders in Johannesburg with the Chinese ambassador to South Africa being quoted as saying earlier that a meeting was on the cards. “I am confident that as two nations, two countries, we will have direct talks, direct meetings,” Chen Xiaodong was quoted as telling reporters.

Initially, the Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi didn’t comment on the matter, but Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra said on Monday that Modi’s bilateral meetings on the sidelines of BRICS were being finalised. “The host country South Africa has invited a large number of guest countries, besides of course BRICS members (Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa) who will be present there. The PM’s schedule, in terms of bilateral meetings with those leaders who would be present in South Africa is still being developed,” said the foreign secretary.

According to a report published in The Wire, there has been an interest from New Delhi to hold talks between the two leaders. However, the pressing issue is around customary protocol – specifically in determining which side will initiate the formal request for the meeting.

Notably, the two leaders have not personally held a meeting since the India-China border standoff began in May 2020 and reached its violent worst in June when troops clashed at Galwan. Xi and Modi, have however, met one another at multilateral platforms.

For instance, PM Modi and President Xi stood next to each other and attended a Leaders’ Lunch at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand in September 2022. But they didn’t talk to one another then.

In November 2022, the two leaders were seen talking at a G-20 banquet in Bali after PM Modi walked up to Xi and “exchanged greetings”, but it was only in July this year, a full eight months later that the Ministry of External Affairs admitted that Modi and Xi had discussed boundary issues, after the Chinese ministry of foreign affairs (MFA) inserted a line into a readout of a meeting between NSA Ajit Doval and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi about a “consensus” reached between the leaders.

Meet after meet

While Modi and Xi haven’t sat down for talks since 2019, post the border clash, there have been discussions among commanders of the Indian Army and Chinese Peoples Liberation Army (PLA).

There have been multiple rounds of corps commander-level talks and disengagement of troops has also taken place in areas like Galwan Valley and around the Pangong Tso. In fact, China and India just held the 19th round of commander-level talks on 14 August at Chushul. But those talks didn’t yield any positive result.

China hasn’t been willing to restore the status quo in the border area that was before the 2020 standoff.

Apart from commander-level talks, on 24, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval met top Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of a meeting of the BRICS nations in Johannesburg. It was reported later that Doval had said that the situation along the LAC “has eroded strategic trust” and the public and political basis of the relationship.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar also held talks with his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of a meeting of the East Asia Summit in Jakarta last month.

Read our full BRICS coverage

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Significance of the meet

If PM Modi and President Xi do decide to sit down and hold a meet, it is quite obvious that the two leaders will discuss the border issue and try to find a resolution to this.

However, why is it that it’s imperative that the two leaders meet? There are a host of reasons and the first and foremost is the resolution to the border standoff.

Moreover, India is hosting the crucial G20 summit next month in New Delhi and would most certainly want China’s support on the declaration.

Through its presidency of the G20 bloc, Beijing has been raising objections and causing hurdles to India. For instance, China boycotted the G20 Tourism Meeting held in Jammu-Kashmir’s Srinagar in May, opposing hosting of any G20 meetings on “disputed territory” and said “unilateral actions” such as hosting such meetings could further complicate the situation.

Beijing has also regularly objected on including any reference to Modi government’s pet concepts like LiFe and promotion of millets in the main outcome document at the ministerial meetings. Furthermore, the Xi-led country has also voiced it opposition to India’s theme – “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” – stating that the phrase was in Sanskrit, which is not one of the six official languages recognised by the United Nations.

Also, the timing of the possible meet between Modi and Xi comes at a time when India has chosen to maintain a tightrope walk between the West and Russia.

One of the biggest issues that will be discussed is the expansion of BRICS. The admission of new members in the BRICS club is complicated. Even as China pushes for expansion, India wants to maintain a delicate balance. While India has supported the expansion, there is concern that China may choose to tilt the balance of the forum in its favour. Among the countries waiting to join are Argentina, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Iran and Venezuela.

Speaking on the same, Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra on Monday said, “We have been very clear that we have a positive intent and an open mind when it comes to BRICS expansion,” he said.

As BRICS works on the principle of consensus, all member states “have to have full consensus on how they would want BRICS expanded, what should be the guiding principles of that expansion (and) what would be the criteria for such an expansion”, Kwatra added.

Modi’s itinerary

Departing from New Delhi, PM Modi will land Johannesburg’s Waterkloof Air Force Base on Tuesday afternoon, and attend a BRICS Business Forum Leaders’ dialogue followed by the BRICS Leaders’ Retreat, with the presidents of Brazil, China and South Africa. Russian president Vladimir Putin will not attend the summit, appearing via video conference, given concerns over an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant against him.

On Wednesday, the PM will be participating in a day-long BRICS summit and also attend the BRICS-Africa outreach and BRICS-Plus meetings with more than 50 leaders from Africa and other parts of the Global South. After attending the BRICS Summit, PM Modi will leave for Athens on an official visit.

“The visit to Greece would give both sides an opportunity to discuss regional and global issues of mutual interest and help broaden and deepen our bilateral engagements,” said Kwatra, adding, “PM Modi will have a meeting with his Greek counterpart Kyriakos Mitsokais and discuss ways to strengthen the ties between both nations.”

With inputs from agencies