World Cup 2023: India vs New Zealand semi-final almost a certainty, match to be played in Mumbai

India is set to face New Zealand in their 2023 Cricket World Cup semi-final after the Black Caps took a decisive lead over the other three teams fighting for the fourth spot. India are confirmed to finish in first place on round-robin standings and will be playing the fourth-placed team in the semi-final as per the 2023 Cricket World Cup schedule.

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South Africa and Australia will play each other in the other semi-final as they are confirmed to finish the group stage in second and third place.

New Zealand were in a race for the fourth spot with Pakistan and Afghanistan, but the Balck Caps took a decisive lead by beating Sri Lanka by five wickets in their last group game on Thursday. New Zealand already had the net run rate (NRR) advantage and now have 10 points from nine matches at an NRR of +0.743.

Pakistan and Afghanistan can only reach a maximum of 10 points but due to a poor NRR as compared to the Kiwis, it’s highly unlikely for them to finish fourth.

In fact, the requirements are so improbable that they seem absurd.

Pakistan need to beat England by around 287 runs while batting first or complete the chase with 284 balls to spare to have a better NRR than New Zealand. Currently, Pakistan’s NRR is +0.036.

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Afghanistan have an NRR of -0.338 and will need to beat South Africa by 438 runs to reach the semi-final.

While mathematically it’s still possible, Pakistan or Afghanistan need a miracle to reach the last four stage.

The group stage leader is scheduled to play the first semi-final at the Wankhede Stadium on 15 November which means India vs New Zealand will take place in Mumbai. India would be forced to play their semi-final in Kolkata on 16 November if Pakistan manage to finish fourth, while South Africa vs Australia will take place in Mumbai a day earlier.