World Cup 2023: Updated semi-final scenarios in final week of league stage

The India vs South Africa match at Kolkata’s Eden Gardens on Sunday was supposed to be a battle of the titans, a top-of-the-table clash between two of the most dominant teams so far in the ICC World Cup.

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Instead, it would turn out to be a damp squib for those expecting a tightly-fought affair with the Men in Blue swatting the Proteas aside right easily by a humongous 243-run margin.

Powered by a historic century from Virat Kohli (101 not out) as well as whirlwind knocks from Shreyas Iyer (77) and Rohit Sharma (40), India posted 326/5 on the board.

The red-hot pace department then took a backseat for a change as Ravindra Jadeja led yet another clinical Indian bowling performance with a haul of 5/33 — his maiden World Cup five-for — as South Africa were bundled out for a paltry 83 in reply.

South Africa thus were served rude wake-up call even if they have already qualified for the World Cup semi-finals for the fifth time in nine outings.

India, on the other hand, continued their dominant march by notching up their eighth victory in as many outings, ensuring they finish on top of the points table at the end of the league stage.

Here’s a quick look at how the India-South Africa match has impacted the semi-final scenarios:

— India were already through to the semi-finals, and are now destined to finish on top of the table at the end of the league stage even if they lose their final game against the Netherlands at Bengaluru’s M Chinnaswamy Stadium.

— South Africa too had already qualified, and remain at the second spot with the second-best Net Run Rate despite the margin of defeat. The Proteas however, could slip to the third spot should they lose their final league match against Afghanistan. Or if they defeat Afghanistan but Australia, who are fast catching up with them, end up eclipsing them on NRR after winning both of their remaining matches — against Afghanistan and Bangladesh respectively. In either case, a third Australia vs South Africa World Cup semi-final is all but guaranteed.

— New Zealand, Pakistan and Afghanistan are in contention for the fourth semi-final spot. On paper, Afghanistan have the edge over the other two given they have two games in hand compared to one each for New Zealand and Pakistan. However, those two games are against Australia and South Africa. New Zealand face Sri Lanka and Pakistan are up against England on Saturday, and both will enter their respective fixtures as favourites. Given New Zealand have NRR advantage among the three, they’ll most likely face India in the other semi-final.

— Sri Lanka, who face Bangladesh on Monday, are mathematically alive as are Netherlands with four points each from seven games. However, given their poor NRRs that are well below the negative mark, their flights back home before the semi-finals is all but confirmed.

— Bangladesh and defending champions England have already been knocked out, and will fight for the top-eight finish in an attempt to qualify for the 2025 Champions Trophy in their remaining matches.