Does Pakistan’s Imran Khan have a future in politics after being jailed?

It’s been a dramatic fall for Imran Khan. The former Pakistan prime minister was arrested in Lahore on Saturday after he was sentenced to three years in prison for corruption. The court ruled that the cricketer-turned-politician had concealed assets after selling state gifts for profit worth 140 million Pakistani rupees in what is known as the Toshakhana case.

Khan, who was ousted in a no-confidence vote in April 2022, remains Pakistan’s leading opposition figure. This is the second time he has been arrested in four months. But there has been a stark contrast between the two arrests. When the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader was held on 9 May, violent protests erupted across the country with his supporters attacking army assets and setting buildings ablaze. However, Saturday saw no demonstrations, no such dramatic reaction.

So what has changed? And what this means for Khan’s future and Pakistan politics? We take a look.

What happened after the court sentence?

On Saturday, police arrested Khan from his Zaman Park residence in Lahore shortly after being convicted. He woke up on Sunday in the high-security Attock prison in Attock city but should have been in Adiala jail in Rawalpindi, according to the order issued by an Islamabad trial court that found him guilty in the corruption case.

The sentence leads to the former PM’s disqualification in the upcoming elections.

The PTI called for peaceful protests in Pakistan against Khan’s arrest, urging people not to sit in their homes. But unlike May, few have paid heed.

Also read: Pakistan’s Imran Khan sentenced to 3 years in jail in Toshakhana case: What is it?

What has changed since May?

Khan, who came to power with the help of the country’s powerful military, has had a fallout with it since and has been the army’s vocal critic.

After his arrest in May, Pakistan saw unprecedented protests against the army with many of its buildings attacked. But the establishment clarified that it would not tolerate such dissent and those responsible would be punished.

What followed was a crackdown on the PTI and the arrest of thousands of Khan’s supporters, some of whom will be tried in military courts. And this has created fear.

There has been a ban on mentioning Khan by name or showing his image on TV channels after directives were issued by the media regulator. In March, the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (Pemra) banned broadcasts of the former PM’s speeches and press conferences because he was promoting hate speech and attacking state institutions. In May, it did not mention Khan but another directive asked media channels to stop providing airtime to those who promote hate speech.

Many supporters of Khan, who were vocal earlier, told the BBC that they had stopped posting about the PTI or the leader on social media. They have deleted previous posts and do not watch his broadcasts as they are afraid of who might be watching.

PTI supporters gathered outside Khan’s house on Saturday were rounded up by the police even though the government maintains that it does not take action against peaceful protesters, the report says.

“I think the response from the draconian crackdown has scared Khan supporters into submission,” Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington, told the BBC.

What next for Imran Khan?

With the arrest, Khan cannot run in the upcoming general election in Pakistan. Those convicted of a criminal offence cannot contest elections in the country.

While Khan’s legal team is expected to appeal against the decision to jail him in a higher court, it remains an uphill task. If the appeal is unsuccessful, Khan could only return to politics after five years. The Toshakhana case is one of close to 150 cases that the PTI chief is facing in court and these include charges of corruption and attempted murder.

Khan has alleged that the cases against him are an attempt to prevent him from contesting the polls.

A general election is due in mid-November but there is a possibility of it being delayed after the release of the country’s census results, which necessitates the redrawing of constituencies under Pakistani law.

What is the future of PTI?

Khan is one of the country’s most popular leaders and he came to power with the promise of clean politics. He is the chief of the PTI, which was created keeping him in mind.

With Khan’s arrest, the future of the PTI also remains in question. The other influential leaders have left the party and others are in hiding. Shah Mehmood Qureshi, the vice chairman of PTI will lead the party, in Khan’s absence.

“The next big question, given the election, is how will the remaining leadership of the PTI try to mobilise?” Kugelman told the BBC. “Will they try to get their supporters out on the streets, will that be successful? It will be a good test.”

What history says about Pakistan’s politics?

Imran Khan is just yet former PM who is facing a court trial in Pakistan. Corruption is rampant and the military is powerful. Those losing favour with the army, find themselves facing the law, making Khan the seventh former PM to be arrested in the country.

In recent decades, Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif, and the military dictator Pervez Musharraf have been tried in court.

With inputs from agencies