Explained: Donald Trump’s ‘very big announcement’ on 15 Nov and the chances of his comeback

When Donald Trump says he has a big announcement to make, it’s a reason for America to put on its thinking cap. There was speculation that he could announce his quest to run for the White House once again on the eve of the 8 November midterm elections but the former US president stopped just short of it. He has promised a “very big announcement” next week.

Also read: Explained: What US midterm elections mean for India and the world

What can we expect from Trump?

At a political rally in Ohio for Republican US Senate candidate JD Vance ahead of the midterm elections, Trump said, “I’m going to be making a very big announcement on Tuesday, Nov 15 at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida.”

He declined to elaborate saying he did not want to “detract” from a “very important, even critical election”.

On Tuesday, America votes in the polls which could result in Republicans gaining control of one or both chambers of Congress.

Trump’s hint that he could make a second run for the top post came after a speech where he slammed US president Joe Biden, adding that the “nation was in decline” under his leadership. “We are a nation that is no longer respected or listened to anywhere around the world. We are a nation that in many ways has become a joke,” he said.

Do Republicans want Trump back?

Trump has made the 2022 election about himself. While the politician did not make an announcement in Ohio, according to a report in The New York Times, he started telling people that he planned to do so.

Matt Gaetz, a close Trump ally, tweeted on the eve of the election, “Trump should announce tonight… And we are going to win bigly.”

To all the press texting & calling me:

Trump should announce tonight

His candidates won the primaries

Biden’s central message was the “ULTRA MAGA” scare

And we are going to win BIGLY!

Trump deserves all the credit for this wave election & announcing tonight he will seize it

— Matt Gaetz (@mattgaetz) November 7, 2022

It is a “predictable pattern” in which Trump spreads word of what he’s thinking hoping that it becomes public and generates news coverage, says the NYT report.

But Trump did not make a formal announcement which came as a relief to Republicans and some of his advisors. Republican leaders succeeded in talking him out of announcing by telling him it would get buried under election news and he’d get more attention later, people familiar with the discussions said, according to a report in Washington Post.

Party leaders feared that if he put his hat in the ring it would energise Democrats and alienate independent voters. If he grabbed the limelight with his announcement, there was a chance that he would be blamed for Republican defeats in some states.

Why does Trump want to run for president again?

Since 2021, Trump has been clear that he has his eyes set on the White House. In the run-up to the midterm elections, he said during rallies in Texas and Pennsylvania that he will “probably have to do” and “really wants to” run for president again.

He is keen to go ahead with a formal declaration as this will protect him from the many investigations he faces – from the handling of secret documents, the Capitol Riot, and the attempt to overrun the 2020 election result, among others.

Trump is worried that Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, who he sees as a threat for the 2024 nomination, could gain more popularity if he is re-elected. The two Republican politicians have a lot in common beyond supporters. DeSantis does not hesitate to take on liberals, is admired by conservative voters, and comes without the antics. Another reason Trump was keen to declare his candidacy ahead of the elections was to kill the momentum DeSantis would gain if re-elected, the report in NYT points out.

Also, the former president hoped to take credit for the midterm elections if Republicans perform well. He has campaigned extensively for the elections and his endorsement has worked in favour of candidates like JD Vance, the Senate nominee in Ohio.

But in the end, Trump kept the suspense going and is now likely to make the announcement next week.

Can he return as president if Republicans win?

Non-partisan election forecasters predict Republicans are likely to pick up roughly 25 seats in the 435-seat House of Representatives, more than enough to win a majority. Analysts said Republicans could also pick up the one seat they need to win control of the Senate, reports the news agency Reuters.

Democrats are expected to perform poorly, which is often the case for the party that holds the presidency. There is a possibility that Republicans will bring the House of Representatives and the Senate under their control.

Joe Biden’s approval ratings have taken a hit because of high inflation and economic slowdown, which is likely to affect the performance of Democrats in the polls. More than a million voters have switched from the Democratic to Republican Party. Among them are swing voters who turned against Trump but are now going back to supporting the Grand Old Party, reports The Associated Press.

But a Republican victory in the midterm election does not pave way for Trump’s ascend to the White House. It would be because of the fall in Biden’s support amid the economic crisis and the shortcomings of the Democratic Party, which has failed to garner support on the issues they put their weight behind like abortion rights and gun control.

The Democrats have a huge task ahead of them for the next two years as the downturn looms large. Even if Republicans control both chambers of Congress, passing bills which are too extreme might not be a cakewalk in the Senate, which will be under the moderate Republican leadership of Mitch McConnell, reports Al Jazeera. This might reinforce the divisions within the party.

Trump’s decision to run in 2024 will bring back memories of his controversial presidency. He has been impeached twice and accused of inciting the US Capitol attack.

“Biden is very beatable, but Trump would have a harder time than anyone else because then the race becomes about Trump,” Mike DuHaime, CEO of MAD Global Strategy Group who advised former Governor Chris Christie’s 2016 presidential campaign told Business Insider. “You want the race to be about the incumbent, especially if they are unpopular.”

The economic and political situation in the US is likely to be different two years from now. And it’s not going be to an easy comeback for Trump.

With inputs from agencies

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