Explained: The consequences of China’s largest-ever military drills around Taiwan

The tension between China and Taiwan intensified, a day after the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the self-ruled island. Bejing had vowed punishment if the Democratic politician went ahead with her trip. Now the Communist nation, which views Taiwan as its territory, is irked and in response has kicked off its largest military exercise in the region.

China has said the military drills in seas around Taiwan are “necessary and just” and its defence ministry has admitted that some exercises may breach Taiwan’s territorial waters.

Also read: Explained: The ‘One China’ policy on Taiwan and India’s stance on it

Ballistic missiles launched

China on Thursday launched several Dongfeng ballistic missiles into waters around Taiwan’s northeast and southwest coasts, said the island’s defence ministry, according to Reuters news agency.

The Chinese defence ministry on Thursday released a map of six zones around the island where it plans to conduct air and sea exercises, and long-range live-fire exercises, as part of what a spokesman described as a “blockade”.

“Six major areas around the island have been selected for this actual combat exercise and during this period, relevant ships and aircraft should not enter the relevant waters and airspaces,” Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported.

The exercises will take place in multiple zones around Taiwan – at some points within just 20 kilometres of the shore – and will conclude at midday on Sunday.

Chinese military exercises.#AFPGraphics map of Taiwan and its surrounding waters, highlighting the areas of the Chinese military drills from August 4 to 7. At some points the "live-fire drills" will take place within just 20 kilometres (12 miles) of the island's shore pic.twitter.com/Jtukwvzub5

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) August 4, 2022

The Chinese army fired several small projectiles into the Taiwan Strait, as Beijing's military announced “long-range live ammunition firing” in the area, reports the news agency AFP. They were fired from the proximity of nearby military installations flying into the sky followed by plumes of white smoke and loud booming sounds.

The Eastern Military Command of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) said that it carried out long-range firing in precision strikes at specific areas in the eastern part of the Taiwan Strait, reports BBC. The strikes, part of planned exercises, achieved the “expected results”, it said.

Nationalist state-run tabloid the Global Times reported, citing military analysts, that the exercises were “unprecedented" and that missiles would fly over Taiwan for the first time.

“This is the first time the PLA will launch live long-range artillery across the Taiwan Straits,” the newspaper said, referring to China’s military.

On Wednesday, China sent 27 warplanes into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, commonly called ADIZ, a buffer of airspace over the wider land and water around the island. Twenty-two of the jets crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, the waterway that separates China and Taiwan ever since they broke away from each other at the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949.

Taiwan ‘preparing for war’

Taiwan’s defence ministry said it was closely watching the drills. It had activated related defence systems in response to the missile launch, adding that it condemned China’s irrational action, which destroyed regional peace, said Reuters.

“The Ministry of National Defence stresses that it will uphold the principle of preparing for war without seeking war, and with an attitude of not escalating conflict and causing disputes,” the defence ministry said in a statement.

A day earlier, it said that Chinese military drills have violated United Nations rules, and invaded Taiwan's territorial space. The island will firmly defend its security, counter any move that violates territorial sovereignty and enhance its alertness level, it said.

Taiwan’s Maritime and Port Bureau issued warnings on Wednesday to ships to avoid the areas being used for the Chinese drills.

The consequences of China’s aggression

The Chinese military drills have forced Taiwan to reroute a huge number of international flights and ships coming in and out of its ports in the north and the south. They have to be rerouted around the six exclusion zones China has declared around Taiwan, according to BBC.

Hong Kong carrier Cathay Pacific said it had ordered its aircraft to “avoid going through the designated airspace zones around the Taiwan region”, reports AFP.

Manoeuvres will take place along some of the busiest shipping routes on the planet, used to supply vital semiconductors and electronic equipment produced in East Asian factory hubs to global markets.

Chinese forces in two areas off the northern coast of Taiwan could potentially seal off Keelung, a major port, while strikes could be launched from an area east of Taiwan targeting the military bases in Hualien and Taidong, said Meng Xiangqing, a professor at the National Defence University

Is an invasion possible?

The drills could “serve as a punishment” for Taiwan for hosting Pelosi, says an article in The New York Times. “But more than that, the six exercise zones that the People’s Liberation Army has marked out in seas off Taiwan — one nudging less than 10 miles off its southern coast — could give Chinese forces valuable practice, should they one day be ordered to encircle and attack the island,” the report says.

“Previously, the Chinese Communists carried out military exercises at a distance, now they’ve become close-up,” Chang Yan-ting, a retired deputy commander of Taiwan’s air force, said in an interview with NYT.

“The Chinese military exercises around Taiwan will put our national military in a very dangerous position,” he said. “They’re already at our doorstep.”

Beijing seems to be trying to normalise a pattern of aggression toward the self-ruled island. If China starts operating closer and closer to Taiwan, we could see the situation escalate, Bonnie Lin, Director at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, told BBC.

“If China decides to fly aeroplanes over Taiwan’s airspace, there is a chance Taiwan might try to intercept them. And what happens in the air could be a mid-air collision, a lot of different scenarios playing out,” she said.

With inputs from agencies

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