FIFA World Cup Knockout Scenarios: How teams can reach the last-16?

France were the first team to qualify for the 2022 FIFA World Cup last-16 stage after a 2-1 win over Denmark in the Group D match. Since then, Brazil and Portugal have also joined them in booking their spots in the next round with a match to go.

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Five-time champions Brazil progressed with a win over Switzerland and a Bruno Fernandes double ensured Portugal were third to make it through.

We take a look at the scenarios for each group in the FIFA World Cup 2022 and what the teams need to reach the last 16.

Group A

Remaining fixtures

On Tuesday (29 November): Ecuador vs Senegal, Netherlands vs Qatar

Hosts Qatar are already out of the tournament with back-to-back defeats.

Netherlands are up against Qatar in their last group game and a win or a draw will be enough for them to reach the last-16.

Ecuador will qualify with a win or draw against Senegal.

Senegal have to beat Ecuador to reach the last-16 or they will be out.

Group B

Remaining fixtures

On Wednesday (30 November): Iran vs United States, Wales vs England

England need a win or a draw against Wales to reach the last-16. They can qualify even after losing as they have a +4 goal difference.

Iran need a win against the USA to qualify. They can also reach last-16 with a draw but in that case, Wales should not beat England or at least should have an inferior goal difference to Iran.

USA must beat Iran to reach the last-16. Any other result would see them get eliminated.

Wales first need to beat England to be in the reckoning and would still depend on the result from Iran vs USA game.

Group C

Remaining fixtures

On Thursday (31 November): Poland vs Argentina, Saudi Arabia vs Mexico

Poland need a win or a draw against Argentina to qualify. They can be in contention even after a loss unless Saudi Arabia beat Mexico.

Argentina will qualify by beating Poland. A draw will take the qualification to goal difference margin unless Saudi Arabia beat Mexico. A defeat will see Argentina get eliminated.

Saudi Arabia qualify with a win over Mexico. They can also qualify with a draw if Poland beat Argentina or Poland-Argentina play out a draw and Saudi Arabia maintain a gold difference strong enough to qualify. If Argentina beat Poland and Saudi Arabia draw against Mexico, then the Asian team will need a stronger goal difference than Poland to qualify.

Mexico can qualify by beating Saudi Arabia if Poland also beat Argentina. If Mexico win and Argentina beat Poland, then the goal difference will decide their fate. A draw will see Mexico get eliminated.

Group D

Remaining fixtures

On Wednesday (30 November): Australia vs Denmark, Tunisia vs France

France are already into last-16 with a game to go.

Australia can’t lose against Denmark else they will be out. They will qualify with a win. In case of a draw, Australia will qualify unless Tunisia beat France and have a better goal difference than Australia.

Denmark will qualify with a win over Australia unless Tunisia beat France and have a better goal difference than Denmark.

Tunisia can qualify if they beat France and Australia don’t win against Denmark. They will still need to have a better goal difference.

Group E

Remaining fixtures

On Friday (2 December): Costa Rica vs Germany, Japan vs Spain

Spain need a draw vs Japan to qualify. They can qualify with a loss as well if Costa Rica and Germany play out a draw and Spain don’t lose by 13 goals. Spain will be out if they lose and Costa Rica win.

In case Spain lose and Germany win, the second place will be decided on the basis of goal difference.

Japan cannot qualify with a defeat but a win will see them through. If both Japan and Costa Rica win, the table topper will be decided on goal difference.

But if Japan can only draw against Spain, then they are guaranteed of qualifying if Costa Rica also draw vs Germany. If Japan draw and Costa Rica win then Japan are out.

If Japan play a draw and Germany win then the second place will be decided on goal difference.

Costa Rica are guaranteed of qualifying with a win vs Germany. If they play a draw, they can still be guaranteed of qualifying if Japan also lose. If Japan beat Spain then the goal difference has to be very huge for Costa Rica to finish second over Spain.

Costa Rica cannot qualify with a defeat or if both matches end in a draw.

Germany must beat Costa Rica to have a chance of qualifying. If Spain win their match, Germany will qualify with a win.

If Germany win and Spain lose,  Germany will need a far superior goal difference to Spain to qualify. Spain has a goal difference of +7.

If Germany beat Costa Rica but Spain draw with Japan, then the second spot will be decided on goal differential between Germany and Japan.

Group F

Remaining fixtures

On Thursday (1 December): Canada vs Morocco, Croatia vs Belgium

Croatia qualify with a win or draw vs Belgium. In case they lose and Canada beat Morocco, the second place will be decided between Croatia and Morocco on goal difference.

Morocco will reach the last 16 with a win or draw vs Canada. Will also qualify if Croatia beat Belgium.

If Morocco lose to Canada and Belgium beat Croatia then the second place will be decided on goal difference between Croatia and Morocco. If Morocco lose to Canada and Belgium and Croatia play a draw then the second place will be decided on the goal difference between Belgium and Morocco.

Belgium will qualify if they beat Croatia. if it’s a draw then Belgium will not qualify if Morocco beat or draw vs Canada.

Canada are out of the tournament with a game to go.

Group G

Remaining fixtures

On Saturday (3 December): Cameroon vs Brazil, Serbia vs Switzerland

Brazil have qualified for the Round of 16 after a 1-0 win over Switzerland, becoming only the second team to do so after defending champions France. Switzerland, however, can still make it to the last 16 if they defeat Serbia in their final game.

Serbia and Cameroon aren’t out of the competition either, and will have to win their last games against Switzerland and Brazil respectively.

Should both Serbia and Cameroon win on Saturday, they will be level on four points each and goal difference will decide which team accompanies Brazil into the knockouts.

Group H

Remaining fixtures

On Friday (2 December): Ghana vs Uruguay, South Korea vs Portugal

Portugal joined France and Brazil in the knockouts when they beat Uruguay 2-0.

Ghana jumped to the second spot after beating South Korea, and a victory over Uruguay on Friday will confirm their place in the knockouts.

Korea, on the other hand, will have to beat Portugal in their final group fixture on Friday and even then, will have to rely on other results for them to progress.

Uruguay can make the last-16 with a win versus Ghana but would need South Korea to lose or draw against Portugal. If South Korea win, along with Uruguay, it will come down to goal difference.

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