Gujarat Elections 2022: BJP poised for easy win with over 120 seats; AAP nibbling Congress, says PRACCIS survey

New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), now in power in Gujarat, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state, for 24 years now and as the Election Commission (EC) today declared the schedule for 2022 Gujarat assembly elections, the moot question is whether it will be back to power, creating a history of sorts, or no.

Sajjan Kumar of PRACCIS, a Delhi-based independent research institution, specialising in fieldwork oriented research that carried out an extensive pre-poll ground survey across entire Gujarat, told Firstpost that the BJP is going to sweep the upcoming Gujarat assembly polls.

Conversely, Kumar sounded confident in projecting a near demise for the Congress despite Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ as he forecast that poll results will take the wind out of AAP’s sails too.

How many seats to BJP?

In 2017, the saffron party won by a narrow margin, bagging less than 100 seats faced with the Congress as the chief Opposition that bagged 77 seats. The contest had come down to the wire, so to say, and it was largely PM Modi, who delivered the BJP to safe shores in Gujarat by his whirlwind campaigning and tireless electioneering.

This time around, Kumar’s survey findings show that BJP will get seats in excess of 120 in a 182-strong state assembly.

“The BJP this time will do way better than last time in 2017 since several factors are helping the party. According to PRACCIS survey, we are giving the BJP over 120 seats, primarily since it is no more facing a counter caste-based identity political movement as last time that had threatened it,” said Kumar.

What will be Congress’ score?

Kumar points to his pre-poll survey to assert that there is not much for the Congress to pin its hopes on in Gujarat this time. Since it came quite close to clinching power out BJP’s hands last time, the public support since then has declined owing to a sense of defeatism.

“After last time, people are not ready to bet on the Congress. It came close and yet could not inch through to power. They think Congress does not have it in it, its leadership, local and national, to take on the BJP,” Kumar told Firstpost.

Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi and Mallikarjuna Kharge-led Congress, according to PRACCIS survey, is expected to get seats lesser than 50.

“I think between 40 and 50 is where the Congress is going to settle down,” said Kumar.

What all is working in favour of BJP?

1. Patidar Consolidation: “The BJP, as I said, is not faced with any challenge from caste-based identities this time. Unlike last time, when the BJP was confronted with a Patidar unrest, this time around, there is a clear and visible Patidar consolidation in favour of the BJP,” Kumar has found out in his pan-Gujarat seat-wise survey.
2. The Modi factor: Equally important factor is PM Modi. “The general sentiment is: ‘Modi ji will come, and everything will be fine’.” PM Modi’s charisma, says Kumar, is unparalleled and something that the major challengers Congress and the AAP don’t have.
3. Congress disarray: “The people, as I pointed out, are unenthusiastic about the Congress, even the non-BJP crowd, mostly owing to the disarray in the party and the absence of any credible local or national face that can carry votes,” Kumar said.

“The general sentiment is that Congress is a sinking ship.”

4. AAP is eating away at Congress, not BJP: According to Kumar’s findings, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is up for some good gains, but not as they are projecting and hyping their presence or inroads in Gujarat.

“AAP will do well, but not at the cost of the BJP, but since it is eating away at the traditional votebank of the Congress. The Congress has, sort of, given a walkover to the AAP in Gujarat,” Kumar said.

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