Imran Khan's inswingers: Is there a level playing field as General Asim Munir takes charge of Pakistan Army?

Imran Khan was no doubt correctly considered one of the finest Pakistani cricketers, a great all-rounder he ended his career with 362 Test wickets and scored 3,802 runs. However, as a prime minister, he found the pitch difficult to bat on as he realised the army could not be relegated to the role of a non-striker.

He was once accused by none other than Ian Botham ‘of occasionally scratching the side of the ball and lifting the seam’ but he won the libel case against ball tampering. Now out of power he has already addressed over 47 rallies hoping to bring down the wicket of the incumbent Sharif government with his reverse swing.

When Imran Khan won the election in July 2018 he was perceived as having the backing of the military and the civil-military relationship and seemed to be on a perfect wicket. A relationship built on mutual trust was established between the military and the executive. There  was also a  personal chemistry that existed with the  Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa.

The perfect partnership was exhibited during the 2019 Balakot crisis, the stance taken when Article 370 was revoked in Jammu and Kashmir and with regard to the policy in Afghanistan. Relations between India and Pakistan had deteriorated when the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) was the ruling party in Pakistan. At that time, Pakistan had decided to end trade relations with India,  the reason behind that decision was the removal of Article 370 from Kashmir, a decision which later came back to haunt them.

However, the close proximity between the principle players resulted in the government’s decision to give a three-year extension to General Bajwa in 2019 ignoring a court’s advice not to do so.

Domestically, Imran Khan’s government was able to overcome all issues. For a while, he went along with the army and helped implement its policies. As prime minister, he used the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) on the army’s behest against the Sharifs and Zardari and other political opponents. NAB investigation against Nawaz Sharif finally drove him out of the country to self-exiled in London.

But his failure to revive the economy from a serious crisis and generate employment for the youth as well as his assertion on the domains the army considers its traditional areas of influence started the friction between them.

However, when Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed, who was seen as the prime minister’s man was removed as the ISI chief, the strain, became visible. Further, his anti-Western foreign policy rhetoric amid the US departure from Afghanistan in August 2021, alongside his categorical refusal to let the Americans use Pakistani soil for any future military operations in Afghanistan, undermined the broader institutional interests of Pakistan’s military establishment and made him a political liability. There were also cracks appearing in the relationship with Saudi Arabia with the government wanting them to take a position on Kashmir.

It was soon clear that the military was no longer backing the government, he was rather unceremoniously removed from power or to use a cricketing term was ‘run out’.

Imran Khan has stated in an interview to the Dawn that he “always imagined that, because the Army is so powerful and organised when I would try to bring rule of law in the country, they would play an important part.” When asked when it all began to go wrong between him and Pakistan’s powerful Army, Khan said his government’s failure to convict those whom he alleged of corruption was the first sign and then when his party refused to appoint their preferred choice of Punjab Chief minister.

Post his departure from power, he has taken to the streets and is talking about ‘Naya Pakistan’. Imran Khan has now successfully weaponised his narrative, which relies heavily on the ethos of national sovereignty and that the country is in chaos and those in power are manipulating the system to benefit themselves and of the corruption that exists. By doing so he is also erasing the deficiencies of his own tenure. He has also commented that the political system in vogue needs a “major surgery” to ensure the implementation of the rule of law where every powerful individual was answerable.

With the vast multitudes flocking to his rallies, Imran Khan now undoubtedly seems to be the most popular political figure in Pakistan having galvanised tremendous momentum more so after he was shot in the leg during a rally on 03 November 2022 .He draws huge crowds as he talks about conspiracy theories, corruption and the military’s influence. Since being removed from office in April by a no-confidence vote following mass defections by his coalition partners, Imran Khan has alleged that there is a conspiracy in play to assassinate him.

He is demanding fair and free elections. if this demand is agreed, many believe that Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party will sweep the next general election, which has to be held in 2023, bringing their leader back to office with far greater clout less than a year after he was ousted in a no-confidence vote.

This was evident as his party won a comprehensive victory in the July by-elections in the politically crucial Punjab province, reclaiming power from the PML-N. This no doubt weakened the hand of the central government, which can no longer control its political power base in Punjab.

However, predicting future political contours in Pakistan is never easy as in the triumvirate of people, politicians and army, the last entity calls the shots. The options of course being that the demands of Imran khan are accepted and fresh elections announced, or he is allowed to rave and rant against the Army and government with the hope that his voice will soon drown in the face of the issues facing Pakistan and his popularity will fade.

Pakistan no doubt is facing political instability along with other issues such as economic woes which has been worsened following the recent floods and displacement of millions of people and deterioration in its security situation with increased radicalisation and unabated extremist attacks.

Naturally analysts believe that what happens next in Pakistan politics depends on the new army chief. The life of the current government and the future of PTI will become clear once that decision is announced. The military has played a central role in politics, for decades. In most countries, the appointment of the army chief is procedural but in a country where the army calls the shots this even when not in power this seems to be the most important decision.

The stage seems set for a showdown as instead of backing down once it became clear that the military was upset he has upped the ante and hinted that a revolution is coming whether it will come through a ballot box or through violence remains to be seen, but it is clear that what he is doing has no real parallel in Pakistan’s history. What he has achieved is polarising society  dividing them down the middle between pro and anti-Imran Khan supporters.

The options now seem limited; either the narrative propounded by him prevails resulting in early elections with the Sharif government unable to reap the benefits; a compromise is reached with him or he is curtailed in his activities. The status quo will probably only last till the next army cassumes the appointment.

As per latest reports it seems Lieutenant General Syed Asim Munir of the Frontier Force, who commanded the Gujranwala Corps but was also in the news for having short tenure of eight months as the DG ISI when Lieutenant General Faiz replaced him is the pick of the Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif but Imran Khan will no doubt feel that his neutrality is affected due  to the Sharif’ s involvement in the selection process.

However, all eyes are now not on Imran Khan but on the new man in for the army will be on 29  November and if there will be a level playing field.

The author is a retired Major General of Indian army. Views expressed are personal.

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