Nancy Pelosi's blitzkrieg visit to Taiwan inflames China's tensions with US and Taipei

Nancy Pelosi is the first high-profile visitor from the United States polity to visit Taiwan in over two decades. Her visit comes when the situation in Europe is affected in some form or manner by the war between Russia and Ukraine. The United States and some NATO countries are indirectly involved in the Russia Ukraine war. The United States has repeatedly asked UN member states to support them in this war against Russia and China.

China, suffering from a middle Kingdom mindset, has been pushing for its perceived rightful place in the world, especially in Asia, since Xi Jinping came to power. Chinese push in the South China sea, Senkaku islands is well known worldwide. Chinese involvement in Indian affairs directly in the Aksai Chin area and indirectly via Pakistan is not so well known outside India. This visit by Nancy Pelosi will have a bearing on that too, consumed by China’s need to involve in Taiwan and the Pacific we could see improvement in the relationship with India, however short-lived it could be.

Reason and timing of Nancy Pelosi’s visit

Pelosi's visit comes at a time when China was trying to flex its muscles emboldened by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the China Sea region, especially time and again busting Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) by Chinese fighter aeroplanes. Will this visit put China on the back foot as far as meddling in Taiwanese affairs, or will it embolden them?

In the minds of the United States polity probably visit of the United States speaker of the house could be seen as a strong move, but in my opinion, this is a double-edged sword which could go south in times to come. Biden, conveniently dodged it by saying, Nancy is going to Taiwan on her own accord.

Why Nancy Pelosi's visit can usher in a new wave of enmity

Firstly, Taiwan is not a separate nation. It is part of the Republic of China and is still part of China under the one-China policy, which Nancy stated more than once in her press briefing along with Tsai Ing Weng. While this was happening, China had already announced specific actions against the United States and Taiwan. China needs to have a face-saving move. Therefore, it's a no-brainer that it will carry out certain activities. How far China will push these face-saving measures remains to be seen. It could also depend on another new cycle event which could take focus away from this news which currently ‘InFocus’ in many new cycles of the world.

What China can do to Taiwan

The demography of Taiwan comprises mostly people of Chinese origin. Most of the Taiwanese industries are dependent on the production capability of China. Even common Taiwanese people have some interest or investment in mainland China. Taiwan is mainly reliant on mainland China for its food security. Suffice to say, a common Taiwanese person is heavily dependent on mainland China, and they know it for a fact that flexing too much muscle against China would affect their lives in the future. Despite this, will the Taiwanese regard their freedom and democracy more dearly than their lives? Well, this is not seen often in today's materialistic world. This could well mean Tsai Ing Weng could face the heat in times to come if Chinese interference affects Taiwanese lives greatly.

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What could China do to Taiwan? China could slow down its raw material and finished goods supply from mainland China. It could have some sanctions on food supplies. It could also restrict investment and withdrawal of Taiwanese investment in China. Military posturing could also be carried out more to show to United States rather than to scare Taiwan.

Air raid sirens that are not uncommon in Taiwan could go off often post Nancy’s visit affecting people's lives significantly. Imagine an air raid siren going off while you're going to the office or coming back from the office where you may have to leave your car and take shelter in one of the air raid shelters. If this happens every day or if there are restrictions on your movement, then it would affect the day-to-day lives of Taiwanese people, and if it carries on for tooblong, it will affect Tsai Ing Weng's re-election prospects as well.

Will it escalate to a full-blown conflict?

This once again depends on how much fuel is added to this fire. Will China exploit this ‘In the face’ move by USA-Taiwan to annex Taiwan as one of its states as it did to Hong Kong?

Taiwan going Hong Kong way is what China has been looking for a long time. Will it use this opportunity to fulfil that dream remains to be seen? If that needs to happen, then military involvement in terms of amphibious landing on the shores of Taiwan, paratrooper invasion on mainland Taiwan including the Pingtung province and a full-blown attack on Taipei needs to happen for China to achieve its aim of amalgamating Taiwan into mainland China.

Biden elucidated that Nancy was going to Taiwan in her personal capacity. How is she going in her personal capacity while using United States aircraft machinery, including F18 fighter escorts, is a story China won't buy, and most of the world does not buy either. It's akin to Ilan Omar's visit to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir recently, which India too did not take lightly.

The Chinese invasion of Taiwan is inevitable; will it happen now? This is the question that begs for an answer.

The author is a columnist, Group Captain (retd) and a former fighter pilot of the IAF. Views are personal.

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