T20 World Cup: Pakistan's qualification chances explained after losses to India, Zimbabwe

Last ball defeat to India and then another to Zimbabwe has put Pakistan on the brink of exiting the T20 World Cup in the Super 12 stage itself.

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Pakistan lost to Zimbabwe by one run as they faltered while chasing a 131-run target in Perth in a last-ball thriller. When it came down to it, Zimbabwe were disciplined with their bowling. Meanwhile, none of  the Pakistan batters could get going except Shan Masood who went on to score 44 runs from 38 deliveries but wasn’t able to steer his side to the finish line.

Things do look bleak but all is not done and dusted for the Men in Green even after two last-ball defeats. They can still mathematically qualify for the semi-finals but a lot will depend on how the other matches in Group 2 pan out.

Two very important matches for Pakistan:

India vs South Africa
Bangladesh vs Zimbabwe

Pakistan need India and Bangladesh to win these to stand any chance of qualification. 1992 World Cup vibes #T20WorldCup

— Farid Khan (@_FaridKhan) October 27, 2022

Babar Azam’s side will have to win all three of their remaining matches. They will face the Netherlands on 30 October, South Africa on 3 November, and Bangladesh on 6 November. This will help them to a maximum of six points.

Subsequent to the three wins, it is out of Pakistan’s hands as their qualification will largely depend on the other teams’ position in their group.

If India, South Africa, or Zimbabwe win two more games from their remaining three contests, they will end up with more than six points and that will result in an elimination for Pakistan.

Zimbabwe have a fair chance of qualifying to the next round after having to split points with South Africa on 24 October in a washed out fixture.

Key matches in Group 2

Pakistan vs South Africa

This will be a crucial contest in the context of the qualification scenarios and might act as an eliminator for the loser. Each match is a definite eliminator for Pakistan, but if South Africa lose to India on Sunday, the situation could be similar for the Proteas as well.

Pakistan’s chances for semifinal qualification:
• Win all their remaining matches
•India must win all the remaining matches
•South Africa to lose at least 2 matches
•Zimbabwe to lose at least 2 matches

— Albert Mathew Muthukulathil (@albert_mathew84) October 28, 2022

Bangladesh vs Zimbabwe

Again in a triple header on 30 October, Zimbabwe vs Bangladesh will be of particular excitement and importance as the winners will have a strong chance to qualify for the semi-finals. Zimbabwe will have a better chance, especially after defeating a stronger side in Pakistan and sharing points with South Africa.

India vs South Africa

India sit comfortably at the top of Group 2 and are likely to win at least two of their three matches – against Bangladesh and Zimbabwe, the match becomes significant for South Africa. A defeat against India will put them on a cliffhanger, whereas a victory will boost their qualification chances.

Net Run Rate (NRR) might also play a crucial role in the end and South Africa are better off on that parameter, after a 104-run victory against Bangladesh.

Summary of Pakistan’s qualification scenario

– Pakistan need to win all three matches
– India should win all their remaining matches
– South Africa and Zimbabwe need to lose two of their three matches

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