Will Donald Trump’s prosecution in hush money case help his 2024 US presidential bid?
Will Donald Trump’s prosecution in hush money case help his 2024 US presidential bid?
In a historical move, Donald Trump, the former president of the United States, will surrender Tuesday (4 April) before a Manhattan court to face criminal charges.
The former US president is accused of making six-figure payments in hush money to former adult film star Stormy Daniels just ahead of the 2016 US presidential election.
The court appearance comes ahead of next year’s presidential election, which will be impacted by the Republican leader’s arraignment.
Let’s take a closer look at how Donald Trump’s criminal charges will affect his political campaign.
What to expect from Trump’s surrender?
Trump will be formally charged, fingerprinted and have a mug shot taken, after which he will know the exact nature of charges against him in the 2016 hush money payments case, reported Associated Press (AP).
The former president will plead not guilty even to lesser charges, his lawyer Joe Tacopina said Tuesday.
He said he believes the case would not be referred to a jury. However, Trump’s lawyer told ABC’s Good Morning America: “Really, there’s a lot of mystery here because we’re doing something that’s never been done before.”
“I think there will be a typical processing, which does not take long, 20-30 minutes. There won’t be handcuffs,” Tacopina added.
“But, yeah, he’ll be processed the way anyone else would be — to a degree.”
According to an AP report, there are several charges against Trump of falsifying business records, including at least one felony offence.
BBC reported that if any of the offences are serious, the Republican leader could face a maximum of four years in prison.
Following the arraignment – which will take place amid immense security in New York – Trump is expected to be released. He is slated to hold a rally at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida by Tuesday evening, reported AP.
Can Trump run for the 2024 election?
Yes.
Even if Trump is found guilty of a felony offence and sent to jail, he will still be able to run for the 2024 US presidential elections and even run the Oval Office from prison.
The businessman already announced his bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination last November.
If he wins the presidential election, the US Congress has the option to impeach him and remove him from office, as per The Conversation.
However, BBC reported citing legal experts that Trump is not expected to be put behind the bars.
How will Trump’s criminal charges affect elections?
76-year-old Trump is the first former US president to face a criminal case.
He called his indictment last week a “witch hunt” and has already made moves to script the narrative to his political advantage, noted AP.
Trump has called his supporters to protest and claimed his campaign has raised over $8 million within a week since the indictment.
Earlier at a campaign rally in Waco, Texas, Trump likened the multiple criminal probes against him to a “Stalinist Russia horror show”, as per Reuters news agency.
His indictment has created a rift among his supporters and critics, with Republicans believing that the New York investigation against him is politically motivated.
According to Harvard/Harris poll, 80 per cent of Democrats wanted Trump to be indicted, while 80 per cent of Republicans were against it, reported The Conversation.
Moreover, 57 per cent of Republicans believe a trial could help Trump’s reelection bid.
ALSO READ: Donald Trump indicted: What does it mean for his political career and US democracy?
Is Trump still a front-runner in the Republican race?
A Harvard/Harris poll from mid-March shows that Trump’s favourability among Republican voters has increased to 50 per cent, while his main contender Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ is at 24 per cent.
Former US vice president Mike Pence is just at 7 per cent.
As per Reuters/Ipsos March data, the former US president is the front-runner in the 2024 Republican race, with 44 per cent support.
DeSantis was backed by 30 per cent of the Republicans, as per Reuters/Ipsos.
Trump’s campaign has also been citing opinion polls to show that his lead over GOP rivals has expanded for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
Political analysts have told Reuters that Trump’s supporters, who see the charges as politically motivated, may strengthen their backing for him in the 2024 Republican primary.
John Feehery, a Republican strategist, told the news agency that the Manhattan case is “silly” as compared to other cases Trump is facing.
“For all the things for Trump to get indicted for, this is not on the top 20 list. But it is a little bit of a scarlet letter for Trump that his opponents could use against him.”
“Such an argument could be persuasive for independent voters,” Feehery was quoted as saying by Reuters.
Trump’s indictment even saw his Republican rivals come to his defence.
DeSantis called it a “political agenda”. “The weaponisation of the legal system to advance a political agenda turns the rule of law on its head.”
Pence said on his ex-boss’s indictment that it sent a “terrible message” to the world about justice in the US.
John McGuigan, a “diehard” Trump supporter, told BBC on Monday that the court case would end up helping Trump’s presidential bid.
“Those who are already convinced Donald Trump is the devil incarnate are not going to be affected by the outcome, nor will the staunch Trump supporters.”
He added that “for those voters who are somewhere in the middle this may end up being more of an asset than a detriment for Trump’s 2024 campaign”.
However, an expert argued that Republican voters might ditch Trump who comes with “legal baggage” for his opponents in the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.
“It’s not good for Trump, the question is how bad for Trump it is,” Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, told Reuters.
“There could be multiple indictments … it begins to add up to a major problem.”
With inputs from agencies
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