World Cup Scenarios: Who will join India in the semi-finals?

India became the first team to qualify for the semi-finals of the Cricket World Cup, following their massive 302 run win over Sri Lanka in Mumbai. With seven wins in seven matches, India are on 14 points and in command of their destiny at the extravaganza. Even if India lose their two remaining matches, against South Africa and Netherlands, they will finish in the top-four for a spot in the knockout rounds.

World Cup 2023: News | Schedule | Results | Points table

We take a look at the teams who can join India in the semi-finals.

Are Sri Lanka out?

Mathematically, no. But their net run rate has dropped from -0.275 to -0.653 after the defeat which doesn’t help their chances if teams do finish level on 8 points. Sri Lanka have Bangladesh and New Zeland left to play.

Sri Lanka need to win both the remaining matches and want other results to go their way, handsomely in some cases, to hold a chance. If Sri Lanka do win both, thereby moving to eight points, then they’d be competing for two spots with six other teams. However, if Australia, New Zealand, Afghanistan and Pakistan move to 10 points, Sri Lanka will have it tough.

What about the rest?

Up to five teams can finish with 10 points now that Sri Lanka can attain a best of eight points. If Pakistan win their last two matches, against New Zealand and England, they will finish on ten points. As will New Zealand if they beat Sri Lanka.

Australia will target going beyond the 10 point mark for safety. Currently on eight points from six matches, they can reach 14 points and reach the top-3. If they win just one, Australia will give Afghanistan and Netherlands a chance to catch up. But even then Afghanistan would have to win two in three matches and Netherlands to seal all three – including against an unbeaten India.

The race for fourth spot is tough between New Zealand, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Netherlands. New Zealand looked prime to make it through but have lost momentum with three straight defeats. If they do get it back, to beat Pakistan and Sri Lanka, they will move to 12 points.

Afghanistan can also get to 12 points with three straight wins, but two of their remaining games are against Australia and South Africa. Plus, there is the matter of their net run rate, which is currently at -0.718. A big win against Netherlands will make things healthier for them.