Between restraint and ruin: Israel’s 4 choices after Iran’s attack

After Iran launched its biggest missile attack on Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a tough situation. His supporters are pushing for a strong response, while the U.S. government is advising him to steer clear of escalating right into a full regional war. As Israel’s leaders have self belief a option to reply to Iran’s launch of nearly 200 ballistic missiles on Tuesday evening, Israelis have turn out to be in a position to celebrate the origin of the Hebrew New Year, Rosh Hashanah, on the evening of Wednesday, October 2.

Nobody regrets the end of the past year, which changed into one of a couple of most foremost chaotic in Israel’s history. It started with the October 7 massacre, followed by a war with Hamas and Hezbollah, and ended with an Iranian missile attack. (This means individuals are relieved the year is over since it changed into so tough and packed with turmoil.)

Hamas, which broke through Israel’s defenses and carried out attacks across the Gaza border area, in the origin seemed such as the largest and deadliest threat to Israel.

Though Hezbollah changed into seen as a bigger threat, it took on a secondary role by supporting Hamas through ongoing cross-border attacks from Lebanon.

Some weeks ago, the placement changed. With Hamas mostly defeated in Gaza, they were not the major focus.

Hezbollah changed into the major focus, and Israel achieved a couple of significant victories against the group, wiping out various its leadership and heavily damaging its weapons stockpiles.

On the evening of Tuesday, October 1, Iran, Hezbollah’s supporter, joined the conflict.

Israel’s air defenses, with the aid of the United States, managed to intercept a lot of the missile attacks.

Some missiles hit inside of Israel, causing some damage. Nevertheless, apart from 1 Palestinian who changed into killed by a missile near Jericho, there were no Israeli deaths.

No Israel Air Force planes were damaged, and none of its militia capabilities were affected.

Iran unleashes its major weapons.

In its first strike against Israel on April 14, Iran launched a hundred and ten ballistic missiles, together with slower cruise missiles and drones. Almost all of them were intercepted. This time, Iran chose to use ballistic missiles, which take 12 minutes to arrive Israel.

“The Iranians are skilled at studying and analyzing events,” a senior Israeli security official told Al-Display screen, speaking anonymously.

They learned from their previous failure and chose to appear after heavy, more accurate missiles that go back and forth quickly.

They launched a lot of missiles, hoping that some would get past Israel’s defense systems and hit their targets.

Iran managed to send millions of Israelis rushing into bomb shelters, while the night sky over Israel lit up as Arrow interceptors collided with incoming missiles high above.

“Imagine if Iran already had nuclear weapons, and one of a couple of most missiles that got through our defenses carried a nuclear warhead,” a senior Israeli political official told Al-Display screen anonymously.If Iran becomes nuclear, we are going to’t risk even one missile getting through our defenses.

Now we have a novel chance to reshape the Middle East, put off the Iranian nuclear threat, and build stronger protection for Israel in order that they'll last for generations.

It’s clearly less tough said than done. After meeting with his security cabinet in a newly opened underground command bunker on the night of Tuesday, October 1, Netanyahu stated that Iran had made a serious mistake and would face consequences for it.

“The Iranian regime doesn’t have in mind that how determined we're to defend ourselves and strike back at our enemies,” Netanyahu said. He then listed the Hamas and Hezbollah leaders recently killed by Israel, including Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

“Clearly, some in Tehran still don’t have in mind that, but they're going to,” he added.

Netanyahu’s comments are being seen as an immediate threat to Iran’s leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who went into hiding after Israel killed Nasrallah on September 27, based on a Reuters report.

After discussing Israel’s response with his cabinet, Netanyahu also consulted a smaller group of trusted advisors.

He also contacted the White House to peer if the United States may be willing to take part retaliating against Iran.

“The Americans completely have in mind that we respond strongly to Iran,” said a senior Israeli political source, but added that this doesn’t mean the U.S. is ready to participate.

Israel’s four options

Israel has four main options:

One option is to concentrate on Iran’s oil industry. This will be relatively straight forward, as most of Iran’s oil facilities are concentrated on Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf, and it is able to well be miles in a position to have a first-rate impact.

The second option is to concentrate on important symbols of the federal government and regime, mainly in Tehran but not simplest in Tehran. (Symbols here talk over with key government buildings, leadership centers, or other important structures that represent the ability and authority of the regime example,Iran Embassies ).

The third option is for Israel to concentrate on high-ranking Iranian government officials, including the country’s top leaders.

The fourth option is for Israel to arrive its goal of attacking and destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities and infrastructure.

Diplomatic sources say that in overnight talks with Israel, U.S. officials urged Israel to keep its response limited in order that Iran may perhaps look after and contain the placement.

The U.S. reportedly opposed supporting an Israeli attack on Iran’s oil industry, fearing it is able to well be miles in a position to induce Iranian retaliation against the oil and gas facilities of Israel’s regional partners, causing a global energy crisis. This would raise energy prices and negatively impact Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign, just a month earlier than the elections.

Netanyahu is facing a rare challenge that few of his predecessors have dealt with. A strong militia strike that severely damages Iran’s regime and economy would likely escalate tensions much more and can induce a full-scale war.

On the opposite hand, Netanyahu is facing strong public pressure to take action, driven by one of essentially the most up-to-date militia and intelligence successes against Hamas and Hezbollah.

In 2024, Netanyahu is more bold than ever, willing to take offensive actions he not often thought about earlier than, as shown by his decision to invade Lebanon.His opponents say he's determined to get rid of the shame of the October 7 events by any means necessary.

The challenge is determining a option to do this without taking excessive risks. Starting a full-scale war with Iran may be an unparalleled and poorly thought-out move.Even so, this possibility can’t be ruled out. Iran, on its end, stated late Tuesday that the missile attack had settled its score with Israel.

“They [Iran] managed to preserve what remained of their reputation in the Middle East,” a senior Israeli diplomatic official told Al-Display screen, speaking anonymously.Nevertheless, some wars start up even when neither side wants them. The ongoing near-conflict between Israel and Iran is an example of this.The new Hebrew year may perhaps either bring a more intense exchange of attacks between both sides or a slow de-escalation leading to calm.