Can Boris Johnson be forced out of power? The exit paths for Britain’s beleaguered prime minister

Britain’s Boris Johnson’s scandal-ravaged premiership is dangling by a thread as Cabinet ministers continue to walk out on him.

On Wednesday, the flood of resignations — which began with Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary Sajid Javid — continued with Welsh Secretary Simon Hart joining the more than 40 ministers and aides who quit in a 24-hour period.

During the same period, the beleaguered British prime minister sacked senior Cabinet minister, Michael Gove, known to be critical of him staying in Downing Street. Gove, a former ally in the Brexit campaign but derailed Johnson’s first bid for the Tory leadership, had urged the prime minister to resign earlier in the day.

Despite the mass exodus triggered by questions being raised on his competency, one of Johnson’s top aides said that he was in a “buoyant mood” and “will fight on” to stay as the British prime minister.

“At some point, we have to conclude that enough is enough,” former Health Secretary Sajid Javid, the first of many ministers to resign in the past 24 hours, told Johnson in Parliament earlier Wednesday. “I have concluded that the problem starts at the top, that is not going to change.”

So, what happens if Johnson refuses to resign even as swathes of the Conservative Party call for his ouster? Can he be forced from power?

Here are some scenarios.

A no-confidence vote?

The easiest or most likely route to push Boris Johnson out of 10 Downing would be a no-confidence vote. However, Johnson is technically safe and cannot be forcibly ousted under existing Conservative rules.

This is because he already survived a no-confidence vote last month and under the existing rules, there can now be no new no-confidence vote for a year.

However, these rules can be changed, and the key to that is the 1922 Committee, the official caucus for backbench Conservatives. A group of about a dozen Conservative backbenchers, they determine the rules under which a sitting leader can be challenged.

With the committee meeting next week, there are reports that they would modify the rule in a way that made a new vote of no-confidence against the prime minister possible.

If this is done, then Johnson would face another no-confidence vote and it seems that he would lose that vote. The result for Johnson in June was already poor by the standards of previous leaders, who have resigned out of principle with better levels of support.

If a vote is called, there will be no shortage of MPs voting against him, even on a pragmatic basis to put an end to the turmoil.

More resignations

As of early Thursday morning, Boris Johnson has seen 45 resignations. The calls for him to resign have been growing louder by the hour with even one-time loyalists like Priti Patel and Grant Shapps calling for him to step down.

In his resignation letter, Rishi Sunak said he was “sad to be leaving government”, but has come to the conclusion that “we cannot continue like this”.

“The public rightly expect government to be conducted properly, competently and seriously. I recognise this may be my last ministerial job, but I believe these standards are worth fighting for and that is why I am resigning.”

The public rightly expect government to be conducted properly, competently and seriously.

I recognise this may be my last ministerial job, but I believe these standards are worth fighting for and that is why I am resigning.

My letter to the Prime Minister below. pic.twitter.com/vZ1APB1ik1

— Rishi Sunak (@RishiSunak) July 5, 2022

Sajid Javid said he had lost confidence in Johnson’s ability to govern in the national interest after a series of scandals, saying he could “no longer continue in good conscience”. He said that many lawmakers and the public had lost confidence in Johnson's ability to govern in the national interest.

“I regret to say, however, that it is clear to me that this situation will not change under your leadership — and you have therefore lost my confidence too,” Javid said in a letter to Johnson.

I have spoken to the Prime Minister to tender my resignation as Secretary of State for Health & Social Care.

It has been an enormous privilege to serve in this role, but I regret that I can no longer continue in good conscience. pic.twitter.com/d5RBFGPqXp

— Sajid Javid (@sajidjavid) July 5, 2022

Days or weeks of ministers resigning and MPs calling for him to go would be a bad look for the prime minister and even the country.

However, the likelihood of this taking place is offset by some Cabinet ministers — including Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab, Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries, Brexit Opportunities Minister Jacob Rees-Mogg remaining loyal to the prime minister.

A snap election

One possibility that England could see would be Boris Johnson going to Buckingham Palace to seek a dissolution of Parliament and calling for a general election.

As of now, the next election isn’t due until January 2025.

Johnson powered by the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 — which was introduced in 2019 — could call for an early election.

Johnson steps down

The easy and most straightforward solution to the turmoil in Britain would be Boris Johnson just stepping down. However, this scenario seems unlikely for now, as Johnson digs in his heels and shows no signs of resigning.

The crisis is due to a string of scandals that have wrecked his reputation among the public; he has been fined by police for attending one of many parties that took place in Downing Street during lockdown; he lost two MPs due to sex scandals, and admitted that he had been briefed on an allegation against Chris Pincher before he promoted him to deputy chief whip, despite his ministers and aides initially claiming otherwise.

With inputs from agencies

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