Information Ops: Is Putin out to finish Wagner Group or Prigozhin plotting to blame Kremlin for failures?

Moscow: Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has reportedly claimed he received a request for statement from a media house over an alleged plan to undermine and “neutralise” the Wagner Group. The conspiracy, allegedly, has been hatched by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and his right-hand man Nikolai Patrushev, Russian Security Council Secretary.

The information was shared by think-tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Friday.

According to an assessment by the ISW, on March 16, a purported request for comment from the Russian publication Nezavisimaya Gazeta was made public by Prigozhin’s press office, asking if Prigozhin was informed of alleged conversations between Putin and Patrushev regarding the Wagner Group’s future.

The press comment said that Patrushev told Putin that there would be “nothing left” of Wagner in “one and a half to two months” and that information on these conversations had recently been shared on Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels.

The post went on to claim that Patrushev suggested that upon Wagner’s destruction in Ukraine, Prigozhin will try to “unite the former and remaining active Wagner fighters under a far-fetched pretext,” arm them, and “send them to the territory of Russia in order to seize power in the regions bordering Ukraine with a possible advance inland.”

The post concluded that Patrushev has already ordered observation and control over the movement of former Wagner fighters and that Putin reportedly agreed with this step and thanked Patrushev for his efforts to “neutralize Wagner in general and Yevgeny Prigozhin in particular.”

According to ISW, Prigozhin later posted an audio clip in response to the claimed press comment saying that he had not heard about these supposed negotiations or observed speculation on Telegram channels, remarking that Russian special services should work to neutralize threats to Russia regardless of where they come from.

ISW, however claims to have not detected any evidence to suggest that these talks have taken place, nor has it found any rumours about them in the Russian information sphere.

It further added that, Nezivisimaya Gazeta has not published the press comment on its own site, and no record of the comment is visible anywhere other than in references to the post by Prigozhin’s press service.

However, ISW report on the subject anticipated that since there is no external verification of Prigozghin’s claim, it is possible that he might have fabricated the alleged plot to further several information operations on behalf of Wagner and his own reputation.

“First, this exchange clearly identifies Patrushev and possibly the Russian Security Council as enemies of the Wagner Group,” it said.

“Prigozhin appears to be setting careful information conditions to blame Patrushev for Wagner’s failures and potential crackdowns against the group, as well as introducing an invented scenario wherein Wagner poses a direct threat to Russia domestically,” the report further added.

The ISW report ended by stating that Patrushev might be Prigozhin’s next target after his concerted informational campaigns against the Russian Ministry of Defense and General Staff.

“The effort appeared to be the next evolution of Prigozhin’s campaign against the Russian military establishment,” it said.

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