Kim Jong Un, Putin meet: What a possible arms deal could mean for the world

After an almost two-day trip by train, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un reached Russia for his first foreign visit in four years and began his meet with President Vladimir Putin at the famed Vostochny Cosmodrome in the remote region of Amur.

At the beginning of the meet between the two leaders, Russian media reported that Putin told Kim he was “very glad to see” him – they had last met each other in 2019 – while Kim, who had earlier spoken of the “strategic importance” of his regime’s ties to the Kremlin, thanked Putin for the invitation to visit Russia, “despite being busy”.

As the meeting progressed, Russian state media reported the North Korean leader as saying, “Russia has risen to a sacred fight to protect its sovereignty and security. We will always support the decisions of President Putin and the Russian leadership… and we will be together in the fight against imperialism.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meet at Vostochny Cosmodrome, a symbol of Russia’s ambitions as a space power; discuss Pyongyang’s satellite program https://t.co/GycgNMiMLG pic.twitter.com/NAaRSod6yC

— Reuters (@Reuters) September 13, 2023

What Putin and Ki want from each other

Unlike their last meeting, which took place in 2019 in Vladivostok, Kim Jong Un and Putin held talks this time at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in far east Russia where the latter showed off his country’s space technology.

Also read: Bulletproof carriages and more: Kim Jong Un's train on which he travelled to Russia

Accompanying Kim on this meet is his powerful younger sister, Kim Yo-jong, who has travelled with him on previous overseas visits. Also, Pak Thae Song, chairman of the country’s space science and technology committee that handles the spy satellite project has also traversed to Russia, indicating that Kim is seeking to secure Russian assistance in developing such systems. Korean People’s Army Marshal Pak Jong-chon and Munitions Industry Department Director Jo Chun-ryong are also part of Kim’s delegation, which according to Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, is a sign that the Putin-Kim summit will focus on Russia and North Korea’s possible military cooperation.

According to experts, the location of the talks is significant. As Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, explained to CNN, “Meeting at Russia’s eastern spaceport is particularly provocative because it suggests that Putin may offer sanctions-violating satellite launch technology in exchange for North Korean munitions that Moscow would employ in its illegal war in Ukraine.”

Incidentally, at the time of the talks between two leaders, North Korea reportedly fired two short-range ballistic missiles off its east coast.

It is highly speculated, though neither side have confirmed or refuted, that the visit is aimed at hammering out an arms deal between the two countries. The White House had earlier said that it had information that negotiations between Russia and North Korea were on a weapons deal were “actively advancing” and National Security Council spokesman John Kirby had further added that Russia’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu had tried to “convince Pyongyang to sell artillery ammunition” to Russia during a recent visit to North Korea.

Experts state that Russia, which is locked in a long and bloody war in Ukraine, is desperate to secure large quantities of munitions, including artillery shells and bullets, to fire at Ukrainian lines. And such an arsenal of weaponry is one of the few things North Korea can provide. A Bloomberg report, in fact, citing US intelligence officials, states that Pyongyang has stockpiles of 122 mm and 155 mm artillery shells and 122 mm rockets – much needed by Russia’s military.

Further, the North also has the capability of producing drones, which have been extensively used in the ongoing war.

In return, North Korea aims at getting its hands on Russia’s space technology. This comes as Pyongyang has had several failed space launches and seeks Russia’s aid to put its spy satellites into orbit.

Also read: How North Korea has been expanded its weapons arsenal

Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has left North Korea with severe economic difficulties and Kim may seek humanitarian and economic aid from Russia. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Andrei Rudenko, had earlier said that Russian officials may discuss humanitarian aid with the North Korean delegation.

Apart from this, expanding ties between the two countries will be a boost for Kim Jong Un’s diplomatic morale. As The Diplomat reported, Kim will trumpet expanding relations with Moscow as a sign that his country is overcoming its years of isolation.

A headache for US and its allies

While improved ties between Russia and North Korea would be a “win-win” as Nam Sung-wook, a former director of the Institute for National Security Strategy, a think tank run by South Korea’s spy agency explained, it poses a problem for the United States and its allies.

The US has been bristling over the probability of an arms deal between the two, as it would further entrench the grinding war in Ukraine and bolster Pyongyang’s nuclear aims.

Ramon Pacheco Pardo, professor of international relations at King’s College London and the KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Brussels School of Governance of Vrije Universiteit Brussel said that with Pyongyang’s arms and ammunition, Moscow would be able to continue his war longer. “Also, it means that there are countries that think that they can support Russia openly without suffering any serious consequences.”

Wang Son-taek, director of the Global Policy Center at the Han Pyeong Peace Institute, while speaking to Radio Free Asia, shared similar sentiments. “It wouldn’t be a bad idea from Russia’s perspective to cooperate with North Korea as leverage to break the US-led order and create a neo-Cold War-like” confrontational security climate,” he was quoted as saying.

The meet between Kim and Putin is also, as Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University in Seoul said, a part of Moscow’s gentle diplomatic blackmail of Seoul because Russia does not want South Korea to supply weapons to Kyiv.

Seoul is a major arms exporter and has sold tanks to Kyiv’s ally Poland, but longstanding domestic policy bars it from selling weapons into active conflicts. “The major worry of the Russian government now is a possible shipment of the South Korean ammunition to Ukraine, not just one shipment but a lot of shipments,” Lankov told news agency AFP.

China has reasons to worry too

Deeper military ties between Russia and the North isn’t just a concern for the West; China needs to pay attention too.

Arms transfers between the two countries will perturb Europe, whom China has been trying to lure away from the US. Also, Beijing needs to maintain access to international markets and foreign investment in order to prevent a further deterioration of its economy.

And it’s not just about that. If the two countries build deeper ties, their reliance on China will reduce significantly. Also a more capable Kim Jong Un is likely to prove more provocative and unpredictable – a worry for China. Beijing definitely wouldn’t want instability and conflict around its borders as it wrestles with the international world.

Additionally, a stronger North Korea may prompt US to increase its presence in the region – a scene that Chinese military and its leadership would like to avoid at any cost. As Wang said: “China’s position is to continue its cooperation with North Korea and Russia, but not to confront the US head-on.”

With inputs from agencies