Missile strike in Poland: Why it is imperative to contain fallout as Russia-Ukraine war intensifies

Days after withdrawal from the city of Kherson, Russia launched a massive missile strike across Ukraine. There are widespread power outages in the country and likely multiple deaths, but the news that has shaken the world happened next door in Poland on 15 November, where at least one missile landed, killing two people in the village of Przewodow, less than five miles from the Ukrainian border and about 40 miles north of Lviv, Ukraine.

Polish foreign ministry spokesman Lukasz Jasina said in a statement. “A Russian-made missile fell, killing two citizens of the Republic of Poland,” Jasina said, adding that Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau summoned the Russian ambassador to Poland to give “immediate detailed explanations”.

All we know so far is that something caused a crater and damaged grain dryers . At the site of the explosion in the Hrubieszów district of Eastern Poland, local media showed an image of a deep impact and upturned farm vehicle, near the town of Przewodow, around four miles West of the Ukrainian border. A video was taken by a resident, which was geo-located shows a large smoke plume in the centre of the village.

While it remains unclear where the projectiles came from, they landed in Poland, a NATO member roughly at the same time as Russia launched a wave of missile strikes against Ukraine.

It seems to be the most serious moment in the nearly nine-month war because, unlike Ukraine, Poland can invoke Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, obligating every other member to come to its defence. The Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki convened the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security and Defense Affairs to discuss the incident, a government spokesman said. Poland will increase the combat readiness of some troops and is considering activating Article 4 of the NATO military alliance treaty. Article 4, allows members to bring an issue, usually a security issue, affecting them for discussion at the North Atlantic Council, the alliance’s decision making body.

“The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened,” the article states.

The best-known aspect of the alliance is Article 5 of the treaty, which, if invoked, means “an attack against one ally is considered as an attack against all Allies.” It has only ever been invoked once, in response to the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States. However, the alliance can take collective defence measures without invoking Article 5 — and has done this in light of the Russian attack on Ukraine.

Polish government spokesman Piotr Mueller did not immediately confirm the information but told reporters that “there has been a decision to raise the state of readiness of some combat units and other uniformed services,” after an emergency national security council meeting in Warsaw.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already blamed Russia, describing the fatal explosion as a “significant escalation” In his nightly address, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the reported strikes in Poland were “a very significant escalation” that offered proof that “terror is not limited by our state borders”. “We need to put the terrorist in its place. He said; “The longer Russia feels impunity, the more threats there will be for everyone within the reach of Russian missiles.” There is no doubt that he is keen to ensure that NATO is bound to restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

Russia’s Defense Ministry has denied targeting the border, and called the reports by Polish media “a deliberate provocation in order to escalate the situation,” according to a short statement; “The statements of the Polish media and officials about the alleged fall of ‘Russian’ missiles in the settlement of Przewodow is a deliberate provocation in order to escalate the situation,”  adding that “there were no strikes made on targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border.”

The statement added that the photos of wreckage published by the Polish media “from the scene in the village of Przewodow have nothing to do with Russian weapons.”

However, as of today’s development, both Poland and the United States said that the missile which landed in the Polish village did not originate from Russia and it might be possible Ukraine misfired while defending itself against the barrage of Russian missiles.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said after speaking with Polish President Andrzej Duda about the explosion that it was “important that all facts are established”. “I offered my condolences for the loss of life. NATO is monitoring the situation and allies are closely consulting. Important that all facts are established,” Stoltenberg said in a post on Twitter.

“Who fired the missile is unclear,” says J Andrés Gannon, a security expert at the US Council on Foreign Relations, who agrees that it may be from an S-300 system. “We know Russia has been using the S-300 for ground attacks even though it’s an air defence system, but Ukraine also uses them for air defence against cruise missiles.” Justin Bronk, a senior fellow at think tank RUSI agrees that it may be from an S-300 system, but there isn’t enough evidence to identify it yet.

Possible explanations for the incident include a deliberate Russian escalation intended to coerce the West into pressuring Ukraine to submit to Russian demands; an accidental strike or debris from a strike by  Russia . Other theories being mentioned is that one or more of the missiles were brought down by an air defence system, and landed just across the Polish border or even something totally unrelated, such as a grain dust explosion, which occurs when an ignition source meets accumulated grain dust in a confined space.

The US has responded cautiously to reports of Russian missiles landing in Polish territory. President Biden, who was awakened overnight by staff with the news of the missile while attending the G20 summit, called the Polish president to express his condolences. On Twitter, he promised “full U.S support for and assistance with Poland’s investigation,” and “reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to NATO.”

President Joe Biden said today that it was “unlikely” that the missile was fired from Russia, but he pledged support for Poland’s investigation. President Biden spoke after he convened an “emergency” meeting of the Group of Seven and NATO leaders in Indonesia this morning for consultations on the attack that killed two people in the eastern part of Poland. “There is preliminary information that contests that,” President Joe Biden told reporters when asked if the missile had been fired from Russia. “It is unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we’ll see.”

The Pentagon said it was aware of the reports but did not have any information to corroborate the reports.In a press briefing on Tuesday, Brigadier General Pat Ryder, said: “We’re not going to get ahead of ourselves here. We’re going to get the facts. And when we have more to provide, we will.”

Russia has not formally declared war on Poland or NATO, and the next move will certainly come from Warsaw and Washington.The US commitment to avoiding a NATO-Russia war has not changed and likely will not change because of something that could be explained away as an accident. If Russian involvement is confirmed, Ukraine, Poland and some of its neighbours will surely demand a strong response.

When Russian missiles are being fired at targets close to Poland’s border, and when Ukraine’s air defences are being activated to intercept them, it was perhaps only a matter of time before something like this happened. However, the fact that a missile landed on Poland’s side of the border is of course a worrying development, not just for Poland but for other countries on Russia and Ukraine’s Western borders.

What is of importance is what the intended target was or the strategic signalling intended by whoever fired the missile. Much of Ukraine’s vital supplies of weapons and supplies pass through Poland. If that or those convoys had been targeted it would be significant. However, presently, there seems to be no indication that Russia was intentionally targeting anything beyond Ukraine’s borders as they are aware that such a move could potentially trigger Article 5 of NATO’s constitution, theoretically bringing the entire alliance to Poland’s defence.

The Soviet Union and NATO were able to get through the Cold War without any such mistakes because both sides were well aware of the risks of going to war by miscalculations or accidents. The last serious incident however related to a Russian aircraft being shot down by a Turkish fighter aircraft over the Turkish- Syrian border in November 2015 but that incident was contained.

World leaders gathering at the G20 summit in Bali are rightly attempting to diffuse a potential escalation in the months-long Ukraine war, which is evident from the statements emerging after their late night meeting.

But has the West has effectively exhausted its most significant sanctions options: Europe is not ready for a gas embargo, the oil price cap is proceeding but won’t be ready immediately and Hungary has obstructed other measures. The likely response, then, would probably involve an escalation of military support for Kyiv, including Western-made aircraft and armour.

There is no doubt that this is not a situation in which NATO or the world wishes to find itself in, the timing of course also assumes significance as it comes during the G 20 meeting and when the US and Russian intelligence heads have just met where they discussed ways to avoid unnecessary escalation in the war.

Even though the incident is likely to be contained as it seems clear that neither the US nor NATO would like to be drawn into a direct confrontation with Russia, it does bring to the forefront the reality and risks or accidents and miscalculations.

The author is a retired Major General of Indian army. The views expressed are personal.

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