Mutiny in Russia: What's going on? What does this mean for Vladimir Putin?

Amid tensions, Russian president Vladimir Putin addressed the nation today (24 June), calling an “armed mutiny” by Wagner – a private mercenary group – “treason”. As per The Guardian, the Russian leader vowed to punish those who have taken up arms against the Russian military.

“I will do everything possible to defend my country…And those who have organised an armed rebellion will be held accountable. Those who have been drawn into this, I call on you to stop your criminal actions,” Putin said in his emergency televised address.

“Personal interests have led to the betrayal of our country and the cause that our armed forces are fighting,” he added.

Putin said that Russia is facing “the toughest battle for its future”, according to The Guardian.

The Russian leader’s remarks come in the wake of the Yevgeny Prigozhin-led Wagner group launching a rebellion in an attempt to overthrow Russia’s defense minister, noted Associated Press (AP).

Why has the Wagner group, which fought alongside the Russian army in Ukraine, now turned against the military leaders? Let’s take a closer look.

Strife between Wagner chief and Russia’s top brass

Prigozhin has enjoyed close ties with Putin for years. According to CNN, his “political star” shined in Russia after Moscow invaded Ukraine last February.

Even though the Russian troops faced setbacks on the battlefield, Wagner mercenaries seemed to make considerable progress.

However, everything was not well between Prigozhin and the Russian military leadership and this rift came to light when he accused them of failing to provide his fighters with sufficient ammunition to capture Bakhmut.

In a video from early May, Prigozhin, while standing next to bodies of Wagner fighters, launched an attack at Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of the Russian armed forces General Valery Gerasimov, reported CNN.

“The blood is still fresh,” he reportedly said, referring to the bodies. “They came here as volunteers and are dying so you can sit like fat cats in your luxury offices.”

How did the feud escalate?

In a series of angry video and audio recordings on Friday (23 June), the Wagner chief accused Shoigu of ordering a rocket attack on Wagner’s field camps in Ukraine and killing a “huge amount” of his mercenaries.

As per AP, Prigozhin pledged to retaliate, saying his troops will now punish the defence minister in an armed rebellion and urged the army not to intervene. “This is not a military coup, but a march of justice,” the Wagner chief declared.

“There are 25,000 of us and we are going to find out why there is such chaos in the country,” CNN quoted him as saying.

Russia’s defence ministry strongly rejected the Wagner chief’s claim, calling it “informational propaganda”.

The feud further worsened as Prigozhin said his fighters have entered Rostov-on-Don, the city which houses the headquarters for Russia’s southern military command. The Wagner group mercenaries were seen on a street in Rostov-on-Don on 24 June.

As per Reuters, the Wagner chief posted a video saying he was at the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don, and asked Shoigu and Gerasimov to meet him in Rostov, a city near the Ukrainian border.

“We have arrived here, we want to receive the chief of the general staff and Shoigu,” Prigozhin said on the video, according to Reuters. “Unless they come, we’ll be here, we’ll blockade the city of Rostov and head for Moscow.”

Russia reacts

On Friday, the National Anti-Terrorism Committee, part of Russia’s intelligence service – Federal Security Service or FSB, said Prigozhin will be investigated on charges of “calling for an armed rebellion”, which attracts a punishment of up to 20 years imprisonment, reported AP.

The FSB called Prigozhin’s Friday remarks a “stab in the back to Russian troops”.

In a statement addressing Wagner Group fighters posted on Telegram, the Russian defence ministry said on Saturday that they had been “deceived and dragged into a criminal adventure” by Prigozhin. The ministry also urged the mercenaries to get in touch with its representatives and those of law enforcement services, and promised to guarantee their security, reported Reuters.

Meanwhile, Russia’s anti-terrorist committee has imposed a counter-terrorist regime in Moscow and the surrounding region. “In order to prevent possible terrorist attacks in the city and Moscow region, a regime of counterterrorism operations has been established,” Russia’s National Antiterrorism Committee said, as per Al Jazeera.

In his televised address today, Putin announced: “There will be decisive measures taken on stabilising the situation in Rostov-on-Don”. Admitting to a “difficult” situation in the southern city, the Russian leader, as per The Guardian, said, “It remains difficult and the work of civil and military authorities, in fact, is being blocked”.

Why is this development important?

These tensions in Russia come amid its ongoing war in Ukraine.

Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told CNN that Ukraine will be keen to exploit the current crisis in Russia.

“Obviously they need to see what is actually happening with the disposition of Russian forces along their defensive lines,” he said.

“If Russian forces at those locations are being withdrawn to fight Wagner – to defeat what is certainly an insurrection at the moment but which could become a civil war down the track – then potentially you will see the Ukrainians opening up new opportunities, identifying gaps in the Russian lines that they can push through and exploit.”

Poland, France and the US have said they are monitoring the current situation in Russia.

Britain’s defence ministry has called the developments “the most significant challenge to the Russian state” in recent times.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 24 June 2023.

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