Pakistan Election: Will Imran Khan, Nawaz Sharif form unlikely alliance?

The general election in Pakistan concluded with no party securing a majority in parliament, following polls tainted by political unrest, militant violence, and concerns about transparency.

The announcement of victory by bitter rivals and former prime ministers Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan has increased unpredictability as the nation grapples with a number of pressing issues that require prompt attention, such as negotiating a new IMF program to support the country’s faltering economy.

When the National Assembly is called in the next days, a prime ministerial candidate must then demonstrate a simple majority of 169 seats in the assembly.

Of the 336 seats in the Assembly, 266 are chosen by direct election on election day. Additionally, 70 reserved seats—60 for women and 10 for non-Muslims—have been allocated, with the ultimate positions of the parties in the Assembly being decided by their combined strength in the house.

Here are four possible outcomes for what might come next:

In order to build a majority in parliament, Sharif’s party, which garnered 75 seats, reached an agreement with the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of the deceased former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, which garnered 53 seats.

Together with other smaller parties, the two form a coalition government led by Sharif, his brother, who serves as prime minister and assigns key positions to other parties.

With Bhutto Zardari as foreign minister and Sharif’s brother Shehbaz as prime minister, the two parties shared power in government for sixteen months till August.

After winning 93 seats on their own, Khan’s independent candidates joined a smaller party in parliament to form a unified bloc, which is necessary for them to be granted reserved seats. They would be able to field a prime minister candidate and get closer to a majority as a result.

They can also work to have their jailed leader released under an agreement, or they can work with other parties to support a consensus candidate, which would put Khan’s followers in power. Khan cannot hold the position of prime minister.

Despite having the most seats, Sharif and Khan’s candidates cannot form a government without the PPP. The PPP makes an agreement to choose the youthful Bhutto Zardari as prime minister, with both parties hoping to keep the other out of office.

Prior to the elections, he promoted the idea, claiming that his new strategy would enable Pakistan to overcome its numerous crises, something that previous senior leaders had failed to do.

There is perpetual uncertainty since no one can establish a government. The most formidable and well-organized military in Pakistan intervenes to reestablish order and seizes control, as it has done three times in the nation’s 76-year history—the most recent instance being the fall of Sharif’s administration in 1999.

(With agency inputs)