Pakistan to have new Army chief next month; it may not end political uncertainty

Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Bajwa has confirmed that he will retire when his second term ends on 29 November. This should put to rest all speculation of Bajwa continuing in office after that date.

Indeed, obviously at Bajwa’s behest, Director-General of the Inter Services Press Relations (ISPR), Major General Babar Iftikhar, who has been recently promoted to a three-star rank, had told the media on 14 April that Bajwa would retire on 29 November. He had further clarified that the Army chief was neither seeking a further extension, nor would he accept one.

Bromance that could not last

That should have put a stop to any uncertainty about Bajwa’s future but April was the month when Imran Khan, seething with anger, had been manoeuvred out of the Prime Minister’s office.

While Bajwa had proclaimed that the Army was ‘apolitical’ it was clear that he was going along with, if not encouraging, the political change in Islamabad.

This was in sharp contrast to the situation which had prevailed in 2018 when Bajwa and the Army had shown a clear inclination in favour of Imran Khan in the elections held that year which had brought the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) leader to power.

Thereafter the Army and the Imran Khan government sought to show that they were “on the same page”. This was to draw a distinction between the difficult relations that traditionally prevailed between the most significant institution in Pakistan’s national life and elected governments.

In the end, however, the Khan-Bajwa bromance could not last. The former crossed a red-line when he objected to Bajwa’s decision to transfer Lt Gen Faiz Hameed, Director-General of the ISI, to the Peshawar Corps in October 2021.

Hameed was close to Khan and helped him in political management; hence, the Prime Minister’s desire for his continuance as head of the ISI. No Pakistan Army chief, however, allows civilians, including elected Prime Ministers, to interfere in the internal management of the Army. Eventually, Khan agreed to Faiz Hameed’s transfer but Bajwa could no longer trust Khan. It was clear then that Bajwa would ensure that Khan would not be in the Prime Minister’s office to appoint his successor.

Growing contemplations on Bajwa’s successor

With around six weeks left for a changeover in the Army’s top leadership there is great focus in Pakistan on who would Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif choose as Bajwa’s successor.

There is no doubt that Shahbaz will seek Nawaz Sharif’s advice and will also have to consult his coalition partners but eventually it will have to be his decision. Shahbaz has always had a good relationship with the generals and would know, from experience, that any general he chooses will be ultimately loyal to the army and not to him or any other political leader.

Shahbaz will also follow the army’s traditional stances towards Pakistan’s founding ideology and will not allow the final say on security and crucial foreign policy issues to go out of the army’s domain. Thus, for India, while the personality of the new chief will matter it will really not beyond a point.

Pakistan’s fragile political and economic situation should be prime focus

In any event the new army boss’s primary focus will have to be on Pakistan’s fragile political and economic situation. He will also have to pay great attention to the continuing, if not consolidating, popularity of Imran Khan.

Sharifs and the opposition are trying to erode that through audio-leaks. They reveal Khan’s political machinations prior to his ouster from office. In particular, they show that Khan was aware of the bogusness of the charge he was making — that his government was being thrown out because of a US conspiracy in which the Sharifs, the Bhutto-Zardaris and Maulana Fazlur Rehman were collaborators.

Significantly, these revelations have not dented Imran Khan’s image. Also, while he is being critical of the army in his public rallies to keep the pot boiling, he is now exercising care not to cross any major red lines set by the men in khaki.

Imran Khan tried his best that the appointment of a new Army chief took place only after fresh elections. Clearly, he anticipates that he would be victorious and could therefore appoint someone of his choice. That is no longer feasible and he too is not pressing the point.

Khan’s demand for elections to be held at the earliest continues. Interestingly, Pakistan’s President Arif Alvi is seeking to act as a mediator between the political parties. He is a lightweight and no one takes him seriously. The question though is if a new Army chief may think a way out of the current political situation lies in early elections. Prima facie that does not seem likely for the most important task before the establishment is the stabilisation of the economy.

‘Alive on a drip’

This writer has noted earlier in these columns that as Pakistan is a country with nuclear weapons the world has a stake in its stability. Hence, the major powers do not want a complete economic breakdown of the Pakistani economy; that will be prevented through injection of sufficient capital.

But, such interventions will not lead to economic prosperity for all they amount is that the economy is kept ‘alive on a drip’. The veracity of these assertions have once again been seen in emergency help given to Pakistan by the donors and also the IMF.

The devastating floods too have helped loosen donors’ purse strings. The devastation however has been so extensive that Pakistan will take years to really fully recover.

Over the next few weeks Pakistan will remain largely focused on who will become Bajwa’s successor. That will not end the uncertainties and difficulties the country faces now and will continue to do so in the coming year.

The writer is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar, and as secretary, the Ministry of External Affairs. Views expressed are personal.

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