Stock Market Today: Stocks mixed, Treasury yields steady ahead of Fed meeting

Stocks are on pace for their worst month of the year this October, with higher Treasury yields, mounting geopolitical risks and muted big tech earnings holding down gains.

Oct 31, 2023 - 15:30
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Stock Market Today: Stocks mixed, Treasury yields steady ahead of Fed meeting

U.S. equity futures were mixed in early Tuesday trading, following on from their strongest session in two months, with major indices are still on pace for the worst monthly performance of the year as high interest rates, mounting geopolitical risks and softer-than-expected earnings from mega-cap tech stocks hold down gains heading into the final months of the year.

Investors found some relief from the recent surge in Treasury bond yields late Monday, however, with those moves spilling over into the overnight session, following a smaller-than-expected $776 billion borrowing target issued by the Treasury.

That tally, around $76 billion lighter than forecasts, came just hours ahead of a Bank of Japan rate decision that included faster inflation forecasts and a wider trading band for Japanese government bonds, both of which are unlikely to alter the demand for U.S. Treasuries from Japan based investment funds.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields were marked 2 basis points lower on the overnight session at 4.839%, and down nearly 20 basis points from the 2007 highs reached last week, while two-year notes were pegged at 5.023%.

The U.S. dollar index was marked 0.04% lower against a basket of its global peers in early New York trading, at 106.074, although the yen fell the most in two months to 150.3.9 against the greenback and slump to the lowest levels since 2008 against the European single currency. 

With a steadier rate backdrop, stocks are likely to focus on another parade of S&P 500 earnings Tuesday, including before-the-bell updates from Pfizer  (PFE) - Get Free Report and Caterpillar  (CAT) - Get Free Report and a report from chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices  (AMD) - Get Free Report after the bell.

With around half of the S&P 500 reporting so far, overall earnings are forecast to rise 4.3% from last year to a share-weighted $478.2 billion, according to LSEG data, before rising another 8.5% over the fourth quarter.

The Federal Reserve also begins its two-day policy meeting today, with its interest rate decision slated for 2:00 pm Eastern time on Tuesday. Markets are still betting that rates will remain steady at between 5.25% and 5.5%, and see no better than a 30% chance of a rate hike over the next seven months.

Global oil prices were moving higher in early New York trading as Israel began targeting areas in and around Lebanon as it attempted to neutralize Iran-backed Hezbollah militants while expanding its incursion into Gaza. 

Brent crude contracts for December delivery, the global pricing benchmark, added $1.05 to trade at $88.51 per barrel while WTI contacts for the same month rose 77 cents to $83.08 per barrel.

Heading into the start of the trading day on Wall Street, futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 are priced for a 1 point opening bell gain while those tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average are indicating a 73 point advance. Futures tied to the Nasdaq are priced for a 30 point decline.

In overseas markets, European stocks are on pace for their worst monthly performance in more than a year, although the Stoxx 600 was marked 0.59% higher in early Frankfurt trading amid another busy earnings session. 

Overnight in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 ended the session 0.53% higher following the Bank of Japan rate decision, while a softer-than-expected reading for factory activity in China, which slipped into contraction for the month of October, kept the region-wide MSCI ex-Japan benchmark 0.71% lower heading into the final hours of trading. 

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