Trump’s 2024 bid: Divider-in-chief still has two more years to plot his return

Nov 19, 2022 - 09:30

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Trump’s 2024 bid: Divider-in-chief still has two more years to plot his return

It’s always good to be underestimated – Donald J Trump

Divide, disrupt and dislodge are the driving forces behind the Donald J Trump juggernaut. To underestimate his 2024 presidential bid considering the occasional bumps, like the transitory Midterm jolt, could be extremely dangerous for his rivals in general and the Democratic Party in particular.

Undeniably, the American political landscape has drastically altered since Trump’s ignominious exit from the White House and he doesn’t have a 100% chance of romping home again. But election predictions have often been wrong.

Considering the unpredictability of election results, Trump’s third presidential gamble could swing either way. The odds are 50:50 depending upon the economic, political and military status of the US in the next two years and if he overcomes his troubles.

Trump’s lies still enthuse his support base

The disruptor-in-chief’s concoction of lies, playing the victim card, the false narrative of an outsider fighting the elites and the MAGA slogan still make the Republican grassroots high.

America is a “nation in decline”, gradually turning into a dystopian state and on the verge of nuclear war under President Joe Biden, and Trump is the Redeemer. That was the underlying tone of his speech, peppered with lines from his playbook of falsehoods.

“America’s comeback starts right now. I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States,” the former realty tycoon said in the ballroom of his Mar-a-Lago resort, in Florida, on Tuesday, as he gave the battle cry to pull off a Grover Cleveland.

The former president presented his reign of disruption, turbulence and the flouting of laws and traditions as a “golden age” when the US was at the ‘peak’ of prosperity and dominance. He portrayed himself as a “victim” of a ‘deep state’ that launched ‘politicised’ criminal investigations, unleashed the FBI against him and ‘robbed’ him of his second presidency.

While exhorting his supporters, Trump cleverly omitted the Capitol insurrection, his abysmal failure in dealing with the pandemic and the two impeachments. He didn’t repeat the false ‘stolen’ election theory either following the Midterm defeat of several GOP candidates who had embraced his poll denialism.

Trump’s lies, misinformation and disinformation get more ludicrous by the hour. For example, he blamed the Biden administration for leaving military equipment worth $85 billion during the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal. Actually, the department of defence had estimated the value at about $7.1 billion. Besides, $83 billion, not $85 billion, was the total amount sanctioned by the Congress to support the Afghan security forces.

Trying to defend his unconstitutional act of taking away classified documents to Mar-a-Lago, he lied that his predecessor “[Barack] Obama took a lot of things with him”, a claim denied by the National Archives and Records Administration.

CNN’s fact-checker Daniel Dale busted 20 lies and misleading claims in Trump’s speech, including on immigration, the Mexico border wall, illegal immigration, wars, the Islamic State, terrorism, the US military’s use of old bombers, and inflation.

However, the same false claims, especially the election denial, are true for the GOP grassroots. Their small contributions of less than $200 each to Trump’s Save America PAC added up to $9 million in the first quarter of 2022, according to a filing with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). In contrast, donations by contributors who gave $500 or more added up to only $1.8 million.

Trump’s PAC, created on 9 November, 2020, to fund his political operation, has a war chest of more than $100 million. He has even spent more than $8.5 million of that contribution on legal expenses since January 2021. The PAC spent more than $3.8 million on legal fees in August following the FBI’s Mar-a-Lago raid, the FEC filing shows.

Trump’s dual image of a macho outsider and a victim of the establishment resonates with his core base. November 8 election candidates endorsed Trump’s “Stop the Steal” lie fearing antagonising his supporters, who play a critical role in elections.

Republicans are aware of Trump’s cult following. “If Trump runs, I’m 99 per cent sure he’ll have the nomination,” Neil Shaffer, chair of the Howard county Republican party, Iowa, told The Guardian.

Shaffer wants Florida Republican governor Ron DeSantis, who won the Florida re-election in the Midterms with a smashing margin and could be Trump’s main challenger. But she doubts whether Trump could be beaten. “I know how caucuses and primaries work. You don’t have to have that many people show up and he has a very loyal and dedicated following.”

Trump continues to dominate a divided GOP

The former president’s vice-like grip on a divided Republican Party remains. He could be the party’s nominee in 2024 unless someone better than DeSantis or of the same calibre challenges him. DeSantis is being seen as the only challenger with no other Republican leader emerging to take on Trump’s personality cult.

A divided Republican party, especially after Trump’s 2020 loss, the Capitol attack and the recent Midterms shocker, could work to his advantage. When the party is rudderless and dejected, he emerges as the uniting force.

After the Midterm upset, the GOP should have agreed to prop up DeSantis as its 2024 face but it is still riven and undecided.

Endorsing Trump’s candidacy even before his official endorsement, Georgia representative Marjorie Taylor Greene tweeted, “We will Make America Great Again!” with her previous statement “President Trump has my full endorsement and my support as our Republican nominee in 2024” below.